Seminários Acadêmicos 2014

Seminários Acadêmicos para Professores e Alunos – Insper
Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa

Em 2014, nossos professores e alunos participaram de seminários oferecidos por nossa área de pesquisa acadêmica. Palestrantes do Brasil e do exterior estiveram no campus para apresentar trabalhos de pesquisa de ponta nas áreas de administração e economia.

Veja abaixo mais informações sobre os Seminários Acadêmicos realizados em 2014

05/12/2014 (quinta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Paul Ferreira – St. Gallen University

Staying Agile in the Saddle: CEO Tenure, TMT Change, and Organizational Ambidexterity

Abstract: This study examines how interrelated CEO and TMT changes affect an organization’s ability to simultaneously explore and exploit. Drawing upon the upper echelons perspective, we argue for a curvilinear CEO tenure-ambidexterity relationship. We then propose that the timing of TMT change critically affects this relationship. While TMT change negatively impacts ambidexterity in the early stages of CEO tenure, it has a positive relationship to ambidexterity in the later stages of CEO tenure. We empirically test and find evidence for our arguments based on a preliminary longitudinal sample of 60 European finance companies between 2000 and 2011. Our main contribution to the ambidexterity literature is the development of a dynamic model revealing the interrelated effects of CEO and TMT changes on firm ambidexterity.


27/11/2014(quinta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Paulo Natenzon – Washington University in St. Louis.

Random Choice and Learning

Abstract: The attraction effect and other decoy effects are often understood as anomalies and modeled as departures from rational inference. We show how these decoy effects may arise from simple Bayesian updating. Our new model, the Bayesian probit, has the same parameters as the standard multinomial probit model: each choice alternative is associated with a Gaussian random variable. We show how, unlike any random utility model, the Bayesian probit can jointly accommodate similarity effects, the attraction effect and the compromise effect. We also provide a new definition of revealed similarity based only on the choice rule and show that in the Bayesian probit (i) signal averages capture revealed preference; (ii) signal precision captures the decision maker’s familiarity with the options; and (iii) signal correlation captures our new definition of revealed similarity. This link of parameters to observable choice behavior facilitates measurement and provides a useful tool for discrete choice applications.


25/11/2014(segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Sandro Cabral / UFBA – Universidade Federal da Bahia

Public Procurement Strategy: Examining the Impact of a Preference Program for Small and Micro and Enterprises

Abstract: We analyze the impacts of a public procurement program designed to encourage purchasing from small and micro enterprises (SMEs). We built a unique dataset containing information on reverse auctions performed in Brazil. We observe that the program had no effect on contracted prices. However, our findings indicate that favored SME’s are more likely to have their contracts terminated due to poor performance during the execution phase. Implications for theory and for practice are discussed.


24/11/2014(segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Jefferson D. P. Bertolai – USP – Ribeirão Preto

Property rights in drug dealing markets: an explanation to the São Paulo’s recent fall on violent crime rates

Abstract: In this paper we propose an explanation for the sharp fall on violent crime rates observed after 2000 in São Paulo, the richest federative entity in Brazil. Following Olson’s theory on the origins of states (M. Olson. Dictatorship, democracy, and development. American Political Science Review, 87(03):567–576, 1993), organized crime is seen as an autocratic state inside the democratic state. Such interpretation is consistent with observed behavior organized crime has in providing public goods and services for some people and regions democratic state has failed to supply, like fast justice system, public security, social
assistance, etc. Here, in particular, we study autocratic state’s motivation to enforcing property rights in drug dealing markets and how it is able to do so. We show that two features specific to São Paulo’s experience are sufficient to sustain such property rights as a Nash Equilibrium, namely: high police effectiveness and the hegemony of a group of criminals inside prison system. Because the enforcement of this rule eliminates turf war’s
motivation, it is able to promote a sharp decline in violent crime rates, as the one observed in São Paulo after 2000.


17/11/2014(segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Fabio Ribas Chaddad – Insper / University of Missouri

Ganhos de Produtividade no Agronegócio Brasileiro: O Papel das Políticas Publicas.

Abstract: Esse será o segundo seminário de discussão do livro que estou escrevendo sobre Produtividade no Agronegócio. O primeiro foi em julho. Nesse seminário discutiremos o papel das políticas publicas nos ganhos de produtividade e competitividade alcançados pelo setor desde a década de 1970.


10/11/2014(segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Renata Narita – USP

Equilibrium labor market effects of non-contributory health insurance: Evidence from Mexico

Abstract: The Seguro Popular (SP) was introduced in 2002 by the Mexican government as a public health insurance program. It was directed to half of the country’s population, uncovered by social protection or employer-provided health insurances. In this paper, we study the effects of SP on labor market in Mexico. To the extent that SP is a transfer to informal sector workers and the nonemployed, it may have changed incentives for individuals to participate in the labor market or which sector to work (formal or informal). Firms in the formal sector face costs to provide health care insurance, while in the informal they do not. This paper contributes to a substantial literature on labor market effects of SP by estimating a search equilibrium model where individuals can be nonemployed or employed in either sector formal or informal, with different wage and health insurance policies. The model is fitted to the Mexican Employment data and used to simulate welfare changes as well as effects on employment, informality and wages of alternative non-contributory health insurance policies.


07/11/2014(sexta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Regina Silvia Pacheco – FGV-EAESP

Política e gestão: capacidades estatais face a um novo ciclo de desenvolvimento no Brasil

Abstract: O Brasil quer ingressar em um novo ciclo de desenvolvimento, combinando politicas de inclusão social e promoção de investimentos em infraestrutura. Este modelo aposta no papel desempenhado pelo Estado como catalisador e principal agente do desenvolvimento nacional. O trabalho a ser apresentado visa discutir as capacidades institucionais do Estado brasileiro, na situação atual, para empreender tais objetivos. A análise busca articular aspectos da estrutura e funcionamento do aparelho do Estado às características institucionais do sistema político brasileiro. Busca, assim, aproximar duas abordagens tradicionalmente separadas – a da gestão pública e a da ciência política. As referências para a análise são constituídas pelas ações empreendidas pelo governo federal nos últimos 12 anos, voltadas à expansão do aparelho do Estado, comparando-as à experiência internacional de reformas implementadas por diversos países nas últimas décadas.


06/11/2014(quinta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Daniel Carvalho – University of Southern California

Credit Markets, Resource Allocation and Industry Productivity

Abstract: An important role of credit markets is to allocate resources towards firms with the best opportunities. We study how local credit markets affect the productivity of local industries by
shaping the allocation of resources among their existing firms. We find that the deregulation of local U.S. credit markets leads to significant increases in the reallocation of resources within local industries towards firms with higher marginal products. Using firm production functions estimated with plant-level data, we quantify the industry productivity gains from such increased reallocation and find that they are economically important. Our framework also allows us to quantify how local credit market conditions affect the productivity of local industries through shifts in the productivity of industries’ individual firms or changes in the selection of existing firms through entry and exit. Our analysis suggests that this reallocation effect is a significant channel through which local credit market conditions affect the productivity and performance of local industries.


27/10/2014(segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Cezar Santos | EGPE-FGV


Abstract: Marriage has declined since 1960, with the drop being bigger for non-college educated individuals versus college educated ones. Divorce has increased, more so for the non-college educated vis-à-vis the college educated. Additionally, assortative mating has risen; i.e., people are more likely to marry someone of the same educational level today than in the past. A unified model of marriage, divorce, educational attainment and married female labor-force participation is developed and estimated to .t the postwar U.S. data. The role of technological progress in the household sector and shifts in the wage structure for explaining these facts is gauged.

20/10/2014(segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Felipe Iachan / FGV/EPGE

Project selection and risk taking under credit constraints

Abstract: Credit constraints generate a hedging motive that extends beyond purely financial decisions by also distorting the selection and operation of real investments. We study these distortions through a dynamic model in which collateral constraints emerge endogenously. The hedging motive can be broken down into three components: expected future productivity, leverage capacity, and current net worth. While constrained firms behave as if averse to transitory fluctuations in net worth, additional exposure to factors related to persistent productivity innovations or credit capacity fluctuations increases their value. The most constrained firms abstain from financial hedging while still distorting real decisions to reflect the hedging motive. Firm-level volatility is influenced by project selection and our theory contributes to a potential explanation for the higher volatility of lower net-worth firms.

13/10/2014 – 12h – (segunda-feira) – Palestrante: Eduardo Zilberman / PUC-Rio

Macroeconomic Effects of Credit Deepening in Latin America.

Abstract: We augment a relatively standard dynamic general equilibrium model with financial frictions, in order to quantify the macroeconomic effects of the credit deepening process observed in many Latin American (LA) countries in the last decade — most notably in Brazil. In the model, a stylized banking sector intermediates credit from patient households to impatient households and firms. The key novelty of the paper, motivated by the Brazilian experience, is to model the credit constraint faced by (impatient) households as a function of future labor income. In the calibrated model, credit deepening generates only modest above-trend growth in consumption, investment, and GDP. Since Brazil has experienced one of the most intense credit deepening processes in Latin America, we argue that the quantitative effects for other LA economies are unlikely to be sizeable.


17/10/2014(sexta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Cristina Lelis Leal Calegario / University of Lavras – MG

Foreign Market Entry Strategies in the United States/European Union Agricultural

Abstract: This study makes an analysis of American‟ multinationals foreign market entry strategies in the European Union agricultural context. A logistic regression analysis using generalized estimating equation method was used to make hypothesis about the multinationals‟ choices. The results from those equations are robust and consistent with our theories. However, several findings may be very specific to the agricultural and food industry. They suggest that American food companies operating in EU appear not to choose their mode of entry based merely on host country factors, but mostly on firm related factors, including firm-specific factors and firm financial performance. Despite the creation of a common institutional framework for M&As in the EU, they are still subject to peculiarities due mostly to organizational characteristics of investing firms.
06/10/2014 – 12h – (segunda-feira) – Palestrante: Walter Belluzzo / USP RP

A model of the confidence channel of fiscal policy

Abstract: Relative distribution methods are a nonparametric framework to analyze distributional differences between two groups. Tecnically, the relative distributuion is defined as the random variable obtained by transforming a variable from a group by the cumulative distribution function for another group. The realizations of the resulting variable can be viewed as the rank of the values observed in one group in terms of the distribution function of the other group. In this framework, the distributional impact of covariates is analyzed only in terms of the marginal distribution of the response variable. This paper proposes quantile regression methods to access the distributional impact of covariates on the conditional distribution of the response. Focus on the conditional distribution is of interest in several applications, and in particular to policy making. An example on public-private educational gap illustrates the proposed methods and its relevance for policy making.


29/09/2014(segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Bernardo Guimarães / FGV SP

A model of the confidence channel of fiscal policy

Abstract: This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model where government spending affects aggregate demand directly and indirectly, through an expectational channel. Prices are fully flexible and the model is static, so intertemporal issues play no role. There are three important elements in the model: (i) fixed adjustment costs for investment; (ii) noisy idiosyncratic information about the economy; and (iii) imperfect substitution among private goods and goods provided by the government. An increase in government spending raises the demand for private goods and raises firms’ expectations about what others will be producing and demanding. The optimal level of government expenditure is larger when the desired level of investment is small, which we interpret as times of low economic activity.


01/09/2014(segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Sergio Firpo / Sao Paulo School of Economics

Occupational Tasks and Changes in the Wage Structure.

Abstract:This paper argues that changes in the returns to occupational tasks linked to offshorability and the technological content of work have contributed to changes in the wage distribution over the last three decades. Occupational tasks are measured using the O*NET data set, and wage data are from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Using a decomposition procedure based on RIF-Regressions, we find that technological change and de- unionization played a central role in changes in the wage distribution during the 1980s and 1990s, while offshorability became an important factor from the 1990s onwards.


11/08/2014(segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Juan Dubra / Universidad de Montevideo

Attitude Polarization: Theory and Evidence EXTREMELY preliminary

Abstract: Numerous experiments have demonstrated the possibility of attitude polarization. For instance, Lord, Ross & Leper (1979) found that death penalty advocates became more convinced of the deterrent effect of the death penalty while opponents become more convinced of the lack of a deterrent effect, after being presented with the same studies. However, there is an unclear understanding of just what these experiments show and what their implications are. We argue that attitude polarization is consistent with an unbiased evaluation of evidence. Moreover, attitude polarization is even to be expected under many circumstances, in particular those under which experiments are conducted. We also undertake a critical re-examination of several well-known papers.


04/08/2014(segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Tiago Cavalcanti / University of Cambridge

Growth and Human Capital: a Network Approach 

Abstract: We study how network structure affects the dynamics of human capital, growth and inequality by explicitly embedding networks into a standard endogenous growth model with overlapping generations. Human capital depends on (i) investment in education, (ii) intergenerational transmission, (iii) a global externality and (iv) a local externality that is determined by the network structure. We show that when the population is initially heterogeneous, then there exists a balanced growth path with no inequality and its local stability depends on the network at hand, summarized by a measure of network cohesion. As network cohesion increases, it becomes more likely that the economy will converge to a balanced growth path of long run equality. Higher network cohesion also implies faster convergence to the balanced growth path and less inequality during the transition. Last, high growth during transition is achieved when the underlying network has high degree centralization and the most degree-central household has high initial human capital. As an illustration, we use school and income data from six Swiss cantons and show that our model, which explicitly takes into account the network structure of a Canton, performs better at explaining income data than one that does not.


29/07/2014(terça-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Fabio Ribas Chaddad / Insper / University of Missouri

Produtividade no Agronegócio

Abstract: Neste primeiro seminário será apresentado o projeto do livro sobre Produtividade no Agronegócio e serão debatidos alguns resultados preliminares da pesquisa de campo realizada até o momento. Durante o segundo semestre, serão enviados os capítulos do livro que servirão de base para os seminários.


17/07/2014(quinta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Wagner A. Kamamura / Jones Graduate School of Business, Rice University

A picture is a worth a thousand words: Translating product reviews into a brand-positioning map

Abstract: Product reviews are becoming ubiquitous on the Web, representing a rich source of consumer information on a wide range of product categories (e.g., wines, hotels, professional services, movies). These product reviews are valuable because they reflect consumer experiences in natura and in situ collected in the marketplace without any interference from the researcher.

Importantly, a product review reflects not only the perception and preference for the product but also the acuity, bias, and writing style of the reviewer. This reviewer aspect has been ignored in past attempts to draw inferences about brands from product reviews extracted from the Web. Our framework combines ontology-based text mining and psychometric techniques to translate online product reviews into a brand-positioning map, while accounting for the idiosyncratic responses and writing styles of the reviewers. Our empirical illustrations applying this framework to wine reviews and hotel reviews demonstrate that a product review reveals information about the reviewer as well as the product under review by teasing out these two distinct components in every product review.


30/06/2014 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Prof. Dr. Liran Einav / Stanford University

The Response of Drug Expenditure to Non-Linear Contract Design: Evidence from Medicare Part D

Abstract: We study the demand response to non-linear price schedules using data on insurance contracts and prescription drug purchases in Medicare Part D. Consistent with a static response of drug use to price, we document bunching of annual drug spending as individuals enter the famous “donut hole”, where insurance becomes discontinuously much less generous on the margin. Consistent with a dynamic response to price, we document a response of drug use to the future out-of-pocket price by using variation in beneficiary birth month which generates variation in contract duration during the first year of eligibility. Motivated by these two facts, we develop and estimate a dynamic model of drug use during the coverage year that allows us to quantify and explore the effects of alternative contract designs on drug expenditures. designs on drug expenditures. For example, our estimates suggest that “filling” the donut hole, as required under the Affordable Care Act, will increase annual drug spending by $180 per beneficiary, or about 10%. Moreover, almost half of this increase is “anticipatory”, coming from beneficiaries whose spending prior to the policy change would leave them short of reaching the donut hole. We also describe the nature of the utilization response and its heterogeneity across individuals and types of drugs.


02/06/2014 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Prof. Dr. Rafael Dix-Carneiro / Duke University

Trade Reform and regional Dynamics: Evidence from 25 Years of Brazilian Matched Employer-Employee Data

Abstract: We use 25 years of matched employer-employee data from Brazil to study the regional dynamics of labor market adjustment following a major trade liberalization episode. We exploit variation in tariff declines across industries and variation in the industry mix of local employment to identify effects on regional labor market outcomes in each year following liberalization. We find evidence of very large and slowly developing regional effects on formal labor market earnings, employment, and other labor market outcomes, with effects growing steadily for more than a decade before leveling off. We argue and provide supporting evidence that large mobility frictions for both labor and other complementary factors of production such as capital can rationalize these striking findings. We also utilize the panel nature of our data to study liberalization’s effects at the individual level. We find that workers whose initial regions faced larger tariff declines experienced relatively larger formal earnings losses, declines in months formally employed, and longer spells out of formal employment, with each of these effects growing over time. Workers initially employed in the nontradable sector appear to be partly insulated from the effects of local trade shocks, particularly in regions with smaller tradable sectors. We also find that the burden of adjustment falls disproportionately on older workers who were employed in tradable industries at the onset of trade reform. Throughout the analysis, we find evidence that deteriorating local labor market conditions make it more difficult for the most negatively affected workers to emigrate to stronger markets, exacerbating the already negative effects on these workers outcomes. In short, our findings point toward long-lasting and often increasing effects of trade liberalization on regional and individual outcomes, driven by large inter-regional mobility barriers.


28/05/2014 (quarta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Roberto S. Vassolo / Austral University – IAE Business School, Department of Business Policy University

What Doesn’t Kill You Makes You Stronger: The Evolution of Competition and Entry-order Advantages in Economically Turbulent Contexts.

Abstract: We examine the evolution of competition and entry-order-advantages in markets under macroeconomic distress. Through formal modeling of early-mover advantages along industry-life-cycles subjected to economic shocks, and based on simulation findings, we propose that such shocks exogenously induce temporary industry discontinuities that shift the relative value of distinct asset endowments, thereby switching the bases for competitive advantages vis-à-vis those found in stable contexts. A vital tradeoff then emerges between a firm’s financial flexibility and its pace of investments in isolating mechanisms, such that the former operates as a contingency factor for the latter. As such, flexibility superiority boosts early-entrants’ advantages, while it alternatively gives laggards a much-desired strength to out trump first-mover rivals. Our study informs entry-order advantage theory and management practice in economically turbulent contexts.


22/05/2014 (quinta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Prof. Dr. Bruno Cara Giovanetti / FEA-USP e Coordenador de Pesquisas – FIPE

Equity Lending Fees and Search-Costs


19/05/2014 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Prof. Dr. Gabriel Madeira / FEA-USP

Occupational Choices and Limited Commitment: Inferential evidence from the availability of new credit instruments 

Abstract: This paper verifies the impacts of recent changes in the Brazilian legal system that worked to minimize credit enforcement’s reliance on sluggish courts and the assorted risks and costs associated with litigations. A federal law from December 2003 extended payroll credit – an instrument that allows debt payments to be deducted directly from the payroll of borrowers – to all social-security pension recipients. We explore this quasi-experimental variation in order to infer the impact of credit availability (via reduced judicial risk) over variables related to entrepreneurship. Preliminary results suggest that the availability of the new credit instrument is positively correlated with the probability of engagement on entrepreneurial activities.


19/05/2014 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Prof. Dr. Gabriel Madeira / FEA-USP

Occupational Choices and Limited Commitment: Inferential evidence from the availability of new credit instruments 

Abstract: This paper verifies the impacts of recent changes in the Brazilian legal system that worked to minimize credit enforcement’s reliance on sluggish courts and the assorted risks and costs associated with litigations. A federal law from December 2003 extended payroll credit – an instrument that allows debt payments to be deducted directly from the payroll of borrowers – to all social-security pension recipients. We explore this quasi-experimental variation in order to infer the impact of credit availability (via reduced judicial risk) over variables related to entrepreneurship. Preliminary results suggest that the availability of the new credit instrument is positively correlated with the probability of engagement on entrepreneurial activities.


14/05/2014 (quarta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: José Mauro da Costa Hernandez / FEI/SP e EACH/USP

Ego Depletion and its Effects on Information Search and Product Evaluation

Abstract: This study investigates the effect of ego depletion on information search and product evaluation. Three experimental studies show that depleted individuals are more likely to evaluate more positively a low quality product than non-depleted individuals, while a high quality product is similarly evaluated by both depleted and non-depleted individuals. This effect is mediated by perceived information sufficiency, so that depleted individuals perceive information as more sufficient, which in turn increases product evaluation. Results also show that depleted individuals search less and are less able to differentiate between high and low quality product.


08/05/2014 (quinta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Richard Saito / FGV-EAESP

Evidence of How Banks Respond to Central Bank Supervision: The case of Brazil

Abstract: We empirically examine the main determinants of capital buffer management (capital exceeding the minimum required by regulation) for the Brazilian banking industry to test whether banks respond to the previous and new fundamentals of capital regulation. Based on a unique database built upon supervision data of the Central Bank of Brazil, we evaluate how Central Bank supervises banks given its proprietary credit rating and its signaling requests for higher capital buffer.  We find evidence that (i) Brazilian Central Bank supervision exerts larger capital cushion needs for banks, especially for small and midsize banks; (ii) market discipline may play a minor role in driving capital ratios; and (iii) the business cycle has a negative influence on banks’ capital cushion, suggesting pro-cyclical capital management. The results contribute to the discussion of the macro-prudential regulatory policies discussed by the Basel Committee.


16/05/2014 (quarta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Simone Vasconcelos Ribeiro Galina / Universidade de São Paulo  –  FEA-RP/RAD

Technological Innovation for internationalization of Brazilian companies


07/05/2014 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Francisco Costa / EPGE-FGV

Winners and Losers in the Labour Market: Heterogeneous Effects of Brazil-China Trade

Abstract: Much of the literature on the effects of China on other countries has viewed China as a competitor, affecting local outcomes mainly through import competition in manufacturing. However, China is also an increasingly large consumer of goods produced abroad, and recent growth in Chinese imports from developing countries

has been concentrated in agricultural and extractive sectors. We investigate the labour market consequences of this boom in commodities-for-manufactures trade between China and other developing countries by examining the case of Brazil. In particular, we use census data for 2000 and 2010 to compare trends in local Brazilian labour markets specialized in industries affected by the China supply shock and the ‘China demand shock’, finding significant effects of both shocks on several margins. In locations subject to larger demand shocks, average hourly wages increased more quickly between 2000 and 2010, while takeup of cash transfers in 2010 was lower. We also observe effects of Chinese demand on job quality, including an increase in the share of formal employment and some evidence of a rise in the share of the local workforce in skilled agricultural or extractive sector occupations. Meanwhile, locations more exposed to the ‘China supply shock’ experienced slower growth in manufacturing wages and in-migration rates, along with greater rises in local wage inequality.


11/04/2014 (sexta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Flavia Andrade
Sociodemographic and Health Characteristics over the Life Course and Cognitive Health among Older Adults in Brazil

Abstract: We introduce a dynamic noisy rational expectations model, in which information diffuses through a general network of agents. In equilibrium, agents’ trading behavior and profits are determined by their position in the network. Agents who are more closely connected have more similar period-by-period trades, and an agent’s profitability is determined by a centrality measure that is closely related to so-called Katz centrality. The model generates rich dynamics of aggregate trading volume and volatility, beyond what can be generated by heterogeneous preferences in a symmetric information setting. An initial empirical investigation suggests that price and volume dynamics of small stocks may be especially well explained by such asymmetric information diffusion. The model could potentially be used to study individual investor behavior and performance, and to analyze endogenous network formation in financial markets.


24/03/2014 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Vinicius Carrasco
Robust Design with applications to Pricing and Taxation


20/03/2014 (quarta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Mônica Viegas
Mercados e concentração no setor suplementar de planos e seguros de saúde no Brasil
Abstract: Neste trabalho investiga-se a estrutura de mercado do setor de planos e seguros de saúde no Brasil, considerando a dimensão relacionada à concentração de ofertantes. Para analisar a concentração do mercado de planos de saúde, faz-se necessário delimitar o mercado relevante nas dimensões produto e geográfica. Utiliza-se aqui uma metodologia para definição de mercado geográfico de planos de saúde no Brasil baseada nos modelos gravitacionais. No Brasil, a utilização de uma metodologia alternativa à fronteira geopolítica como critério de definição da dimensão geográfica pode ser complementar, haja vista a heterogeneidade geopolítica e socioeconômica do país. Nesse sentido, propõe-se que a área de mercado seja definida através do fluxo de relações de troca (consumo). Esse fluxo de relações depende da oferta de serviços, da demanda potencial e da distância entre a oferta de serviços e o local de residência. A parametrização do modelo é realizada a partir das informações de utilização de serviços hospitalares na rede pública proveniente dos registros de autorização de internação hospitalar (AIH). A aplicação empírica é realizada para o Brasil utilizando os dados de registros das operadoras de planos de saúde e seguros-saúde disponibilizados pela ANS para junho de 2007 e para janeiro de 2010. Do ponto de vista empírico, os resultados encontrados neste trabalho evidenciam a presença de um mercado concentrado em algumas áreas, sendo os mercados de planos coletivos menos concentrados que os de planos individuais.


26/02/2014 (quarta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Heitor Almeida
The Real Effects of Sovereign Credit Rating Downgrades.
Abstract: Sovereign credit rating downgrades create exogenous variation in corporate credit ratings because of sovereign ceiling policies followed by rating agencies. We exploit this variation to identify the causal effect of rating downgrades on firms’ cost of capital, investment and financial policies. Following a sovereign downgrade, firms with pre-downgrade rating equal to the sovereign’s show a large drop in their credit ratings, higher cost of debt, and lower investment and leverage than similar firms with rating below the sovereign’s. Placebo tests using sovereign upgrades and recessions that are not accompanied by sovereign downgrades confirm a causal interpretation of the results. Our findings suggest that public debt management generates negative externalities on for the private sector and real economic activity.


20/02/2014 (quinta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Antonio Gledson de Carvalho
Conflict of Interest in Universal Banking: Evidences from IPOs
Abstract: This article investigates conflict of interest in universal banking through short run-returns. Two of the main obstacles to detect mispricing in IPOs are the price stabilization performed by the underwriter that can distort secondary market prices and the absence of data on the ex-ante demand for the offering. In this article we take advantage of a Brazilian institutional feature that forces the underwriter to disclosure information on the price stabilization process and on the ex-ante demand for the offering. We found no evidence for mispricing for the cases in which the underwriter lends money to a firm and later on underwrites its IPOs. Things are different when the underwriter buys equity: for the stabilization period, there is no evidence of mispricing. However, for the post-stabilization period, there is overpricing.  Equity-conflicted IPOs in the post stabilization period present returns around 6% inferior to other IPOs. Evidence suggests that underwriters use price stabilization to disguise overpricing.


12/02/2014 (quarta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Thomas Buser
The impact of positive and negative income changes on the height and weight of young children (with Hessel Oosterbeek, Erik Plug, José Rosero and Juan Ponce).
Abstract: We estimate the impact of changes in unearned income on the height and weight of young children in a developing country. As source of variation we use changes in the eligibility criteria for receipt of an unconditional cash transfer in Ecuador. Our key finding is that young children in families that lost the transfer which they had for seven years, weigh less and are shorter and more likely to be stunted than young children in families that kept the cash transfer. We find no effect on young children’s height and weight of gaining the cash transfer. Information on household expenditures suggests that a reduction of food expenditures by households that lost the transfer is the main mechanism behind this finding.




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