Overconfidence and Entrepreneurial Choice under Ambiguity: Evidence from the Lab

Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa

Ano: 2013

Palestrante: Anisa Shyti (Paris Business School)

Entrepreneurship studies have attributed to overconfidence decisions to start a new venture. Many decision situations, through which overconfidence is measured, entail some degrees of uncertainty (e.g., related to own skill or to competition). The aspect of uncertainty is largely ignored in overconfidence studies or entrepreneurial research. Both uncertainty and overconfidence influence individuals’ likelihood perceptions. Nevertheless, these two aspects are seldom jointly investigated, and the little evidence provides inconclusive results. In this study, we experimentally investigate how uncertainty, as a property of the situation, and overconfidence, as a characteristic of decision makers’ beliefs, influence choice behavior. Our findings with Executive MBA participants show that overconfident decision makers choose less uncertain options for low-likelihood outcomes and more uncertain options for high likelihood outcomes, contrary to neutral-confidence decision makers, which choices are in line with standard Prospect Theory predictions.

Data: 01 de abril de 2013 (segunda-feira)

Horário: 12h

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