Stéphanie Shinoki and Guilherme Gallego, students of the Ph.D. in Business Economics at Insper, were selected to participate in the eighth Lindau Nobel Meeting in Economics Sciences, which will take place from August 26 to 30 in Lindau, Germany. Only three Brazilian economists were chosen, who will join about 250 young researchers from around the world. Since 1951, the meeting has brought together Nobel laureates in Economics with young researchers from different countries to inspire the new generation and enable the exchange of experiences in the context of academic research. The students were nominated for the selection process by the Brazilian Academy of Sciences after being chosen by Insper. This edition of the event will mainly discuss the following topics: financial system stability, developing institutions, and climate change.

 

“It will be five intense days with many lectures and interactive activities between young researchers and 20 Nobel Prize winners. In addition, I am particularly interested in the possibility of networking with a highly qualified global community. I am very excited to follow all the discussions, especially those involving James Heckman and Guido Imbens, two Nobel laureates linked to econometrics, which is my area of expertise,” highlights Stéphanie, who is in the fifth year of her Ph.D. “From the beginning, Insper provided a lot of support, actively contributing to the success of my selection. The faculty even sent two letters of recommendation,” she adds.

 

In econometrics, the graduate student observes, statistical methods are used to find causation—the effect of an action or initiative on another, such as a government program's effect on children's education levels. “The goal of my research is to obtain these results as efficiently as possible, which will inform the choices of decision-makers in the public and private sectors. For this, I need to first find the method with the least error rate, paying special attention to the data used in the research,” she explains.

 

As an example of her work, Stéphanie cites a study that analyzed the effects of the budget law approved by the Italian federal government. This legislation brought fiscal discipline to public spending by municipalities. However, it established an exception for cities with fewer than five thousand inhabitants. The research then analyzed the effects in terms of public deficit of the accounts of these municipalities not covered by the approved budget rule. “This is the main function of econometrics, which measures the economic impacts of a decision,” she states. Another example mentioned by her concerns social assistance payments by the government. “In this case, the goal is to find out if the payment is effective in improving social indicators, such as keeping children in school,” she says.

 

The economists mentioned by Stéphanie stood out in this field of econometrics. Heckman, professor emeritus of economics at the University of Chicago, won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2000 by demonstrating that the quality of early childhood development significantly influences the economic, social, and health outcomes of individuals and society as a whole. His efforts demonstrated the enormous economic gains for countries as a result of investment in early childhood development.

 

Guido Imbens, along with economist Joshua Angrist, received the Nobel Prize in 2021 for their methodological contributions to the analysis of causal relationships in the labor market. This prize was shared with economist David Card in recognition of their empirical contributions to labor economics.

 

 

Universal basic income

 

Dedicated mainly to the theme of macroeconomics, labor market, and development, the student Guilherme Gallego, who will also be at the Lindau Nobel Meeting, has been focusing on studying the effects on the labor market of developing economies that replace conditional income distribution policies, such as Bolsa Família and unemployment insurance, with universal basic income.

 

"In this case, rather than reaching only a portion of the population, the universal basic income reaches everyone without requiring income conditionality. In conditional programs, those who exceed the eligibility threshold suffer an implicit tax, as they lose the benefit entirely, which can dissuade the transition to formal jobs with better wages. Since informal income is often not fully verifiable by the government, this creates an incentive to remain in informality," he explains.

 

By working with a universal system, the country eliminates this effect, allowing the worker to accept formal jobs without the risk of losing the benefit, which tends to increase the formalization of the labor market, especially in regions with high rates of informality. "Initially, there was a fear that the fiscal costs of a universal program would be prohibitive. However, the results show that when the benefit is adjusted within an adequate size, the increase in formalization and the productivity gains generated by this transition help offset these costs since tax collection also grows in the new scenario. In other words, there is an optimal level of basic income that balances the positive impacts on the labor market and the fiscal sustainability of the program," he observes.

 

Besides this topic, Guilherme also studies the effects of emerging new technologies, such as artificial intelligence, on the Brazilian labor market. His research has already found that in the municipalities most exposed to the use of new technologies, there is an increase in cognitive and abstract occupations, while routine manual occupations are losing ground. This indicates that the technological shift is not only reducing specific job categories but restructuring the composition of occupations, which may have implications for labor market polarization and income distribution in the country.

 

"It is a pleasure and an honor to participate in the Lindau Nobel Meeting. I am in the final stage of my Ph.D. at Insper and am interested in pursuing an academic career. The selection for this global event is a recognition of the work I have been developing in recent years and another step towards strengthening my academic contacts," concludes the doctoral student.

 

 

10 years of the Doctoral Program

 

Upon completing a decade of existence, the Doctoral Program in Economics of Business at Insper consolidates itself as an innovative and essential program for the training of researchers and professionals with a high analytical and strategic capacity. Launched in 2015 with an unprecedented approach in Brazil, the program stands out for exploring the intersection between Economics and Business Administration, preparing its students to face complex challenges in both the private and public sectors. With rigorous quantitative training and a curriculum that integrates theory and practice, the program aligns with the best international schools, where applied economics in business is a consolidated and constantly evolving field.

 

Over these ten years, the program has strengthened with a differentiated academic proposal, structured in three tracks – Strategy & Marketing, Microeconomics, and Macroeconomics & Finance – supported by an excellent faculty, with strong international presence. Additionally, the internationalization of the program, with classes taught in English and broad connections with foreign institutions, has increased the reach and relevance of the doctoral program, attracting talents from various parts of the world. This global exchange contributes to the training of professionals capable of applying cutting-edge scientific methods to solve economic and managerial problems, positively impacting both the academic environment and the corporate world and the formulation of public policies.