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Modelo de Previsão de Vendas para Bens de Capital Industriais
Código: WPE – 333
Adriana Bruscato Bortoluzzo
Danny Pimentel Claro
Jorge Aparecido da Silva
The objective of this work is to develop a sales forecasting model for industrial capital goods. Nine hypotheses are proposed to develop the model, seven operationalized from economic environment data and sources of funds for investments, and two from the target company’s internal database. For the work development, monthly data of sales volume, number of offers issued, and investments in marketing communication are taken from a representative company in the industrial capital goods segment, analyzed in time series models with regression (transfer function models) and variables stabilized through log-return transformation. The results confirm the importance of factors such as interest rate, exchange rate, the existence of special financing programs and the inflow of foreign investment in creating the right environment to sales realization, and support the importance of investments in advertising, sometimes subject of controversy regarding the real importance in generating sales within the industrial market.