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Measuring Unemployment Persistence of Different Labor Force Groups In the Greater Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area
Código: WPE – 079
Fábio Augusto Reis Gomes
Cleomar Gomes da Silva
This article makes use of Auto-Regressive-Fractionally-Integrated-Moving-Average (ARFIMA) models to examine the unemployment persistence of different labor forces in the Greater Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo, Brazil. To this purpose, not only is the region’s open unemployment rate analyzed but it is also disaggregated by gender, age, color and position within the household. The period ranges between January/1985 and December/2005 and, despite showing heterogeneous orders of integration, the results lie between 0.5 and 1, in general. This is an indication that the unemployment rates in Sao Paulo are non-stationary but still mean-reverting. The only two series which can be considered to be exceptions to the general case are those related to workers aged between 15 and 17 and workers over 40. Both of them are neither statio nary nor meanreverting. Therefore, all disinflation policies performed by the Brazilian policymakers in the last two decades have impacted Sao Paulo’s labor force distinctively, with a heavier burden on young adults and older generations.