21/10/2020
Ano: 2020
Código: WPE – 392
Autores/Pesquisadores:
Resumo:
Making use of a State-Space framework, we present a generalization of the SIR-D models, where its parameters (mortality, contamination and recovery rates) evolve with time. The model has captured very well the effect of the lockdown on contamination, and the evolution of the mortality rate. It also provides us with forecast (with confidence intervals) the future values of these rates, as well as the total number of deaths, peaks of future waves, etc. Estimates of the percentage of the population divided into Susceptible, Infected and Recovered are also developed, as well as their predictions.
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