Seminários Acadêmicos 2015

Seminiários Acadêmicos para Profesores e Alunos - Insper
Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa

Em 2015, nossos professores e alunos participaram de seminários oferecidos por nossa área de pesquisa acadêmica. Palestrantes do Brasil e do exterior estiveram no campus para apresentar trabalhos de pesquisa de ponta nas áreas de administração e economia.

01/12/2015 (terça-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Alan Moreira – Yale School of Management

Volatility Managed Portfolios

Abstract: Managed portfolios that take less risk when volatility is high produce large, positive alphas and increase factor Sharpe ratios by substantial amounts. We document this fact for the market, value, momentum, profitability, return on equity, and investment factors in equities, as well as the currency carry trade. Our portfolio timing strategies are simple to implement in real time and are contrary to conventional wisdom because volatility tends to be high after the onset of recessions and crises when selling is typically viewed as a mistake. Instead, our strategy earns high average returns while taking less risk in recessions. We study the portfolio choice implications of these results. We find volatility timing provides large utility gains to a mean variance investor, with increases in lifetime utility ranging from 50-90%. We then study the problem of a long horizon investor and show that, perhaps surprisingly, long horizon investors can benefit from volatility timing even when time-variation in volatility is completely driven by time-varying discount rate volatility.

 

30/11/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrantes: Marco Bonomo, Marcelo Santos e Ricardo Brito – Insper

Why Are Savings Rate so Low and Interest Rates so High in Brazil? The Role of Institutions.

27/11/2015 (sexta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: José Afonso Mazzon – FEA – USP

Information overload, choice deferral, and moderating role of need for cognition: empirical evidence.

Abstract: Choice deferral due to information overload is an undesirable result of competitive environments. The neoclassical maximization models predict that choice avoidance will not increase as more information is offered to consumers. The theories developed in the consumer behavior field predict that some properties of the environment may lead to behavioral effects and an increase in choice avoidance due to information overload. Based on stimuli generated experimentally and tested among 1,000 consumers, this empirical research provides evidence for the presence of behavioral effects due to information overload and reveals the different effects of increasing the number of options or the number of attributes. This study also finds that the need for cognition moderates these behavioral effects, and it proposes psychological processes that may trigger the effects observed.

 

16/11/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Pedro A. C. Saffi – Cambridge University

Short Sales Constraints and the Diversification Puzzle

Abstract: Building on the insights of Miller (1977) about short sale constraints, we construct a model showing that investors should disagree less about the valuation of a conglomerate than the valuations of its divisions. Because disagreement, combined with short-sale constraints, increases asset prices, it implies a conglomerate discount. The model provides a wide variety of empirically testable implications for the size and incidence of the conglomerate discount. We test several of these predictions, and find that (i) conglomerates face fewer short sales constraints and have less dispersion of opinion than pure-play firms, and (ii) the conglomerate discount increases with short sales constraints and decreases with differences of opinion. While we are unable to fully explain the conglomerate discount through proxies of short sales constraints and differences of opinion, we find that they reduce its magnitude between 10-30% once we control for these variables.

 

09/11/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Juliano Assunção – PUC – Rio

Electrification, Agricultural Productivity and Deforestation in Brazil

Abstract: When deforestation laws are difficult to enforce, increased agricultural productivity and intensification are used as an indirect policy tools to reduce the pressure to clear forests for new land, a strategy known as the “Borlaug hypothesis”. Increasing productivity can have ambiguous effects on forest protection in theory: it can expand the scope of farming, which is detrimental to the forest, but it can also induce farmers facing factor-market constraints to switch away from environmentally destructive, land-intensive cattle grazing and into less harmful crop cultivation. We examine these predictions using five waves of the Brazil Agricultural census, 1970 – 2006. We identify productivity shocks using the expansion of rural electrification in Brazil during 1960-2000. We show that electrification increased crop productivity, and farmers subsequently both expand farming through frontier land conversion, but also shift away from cattle ranching and into crop cultivation. The latter allows farmers to retain more native vegetation within rural settlements. Overall, electrification causes a net decrease in deforestation. We also show that Brazilian farmers are credit constrained and invest more in capital following electrification, consistent with the theory we build. We address the endogeneity of electrification by developing a model that forecasts hydropower dam placement based on topographic attributes of each location, and isolate the exogenous portion of the panel variation in electrification.

 

06/11/2015 (sexta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Giovanni Maggi – Yale University

Learning by Ruling: A Dynamic Model of Trade Disputes

Abstract: We develop a model of trade dispute resolution in the presence of institutional learning. In the model, trade disputes that lead to court rulings allow the court to learn, and its rulings become more accurate in future disputes. We emphasize the dynamic implications of such institutional learning, and demonstrate that in its presence (i) disputes and rulings are “front loaded,” i.e., the frequency of equilibrium disputes and rulings early on in the life of the institution is higher than it would be otherwise, and (ii) past rulings lower the frequency of future disputes and rulings. Motivated by these predictions, we examine data on actual WTO disputes and find evidence of significant institutional learning in the WTO.

 

30/10/2015 (sexta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Marian Moszoro – University of California, Berkeley and Harvard University

Political Contestability and Contract Rigidity: An Analysis of Procurement Contracts.

Abstract: We compare procurement contracts where the procurer is either a public agent or a private corporation. Using algorithmic data reading and textual analysis on a rich dataset of contracts for a standardized product and service from a single provider, we find that public contracts feature more rigidity clauses than private-to-private contracts and their renegotiation is formalized more frequently in amendments. We further compare in-sample public contracts and find similar patterns rising in political contestability using several measures. We argue that a significant part of the contractual rigidity difference between purely private and public contracts due to the specific nature of public contracts which are more permeable to the political environment.

 

26/10/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Ariaster B. Chimeli – University of São Paulo, FEA, Department of Economics

Protecting the Rainforest? The Case of Mahogany Prohibition and Deforestation.

Abstract: Tropical deforestation around the world has called the attention of scientists and policy makers trying to understand its causes and design forest protection policies. Several commentators have identified logging of high-value timber species as an important cause of tropical deforestation. They argue that penetrating dense tropical forests is prohibitively costly for most economic activities, except for high-value timber harvesting. Although harvesting of high value timber has a small direct impact on the forest cover, it leaves behind basic infrastructure, especially logging roads, that lowers the penetration costs for other economic activities, which can cause large-scale deforestation. A number of countries have accepted this argument and appealed to strict policies such as logging bans to protect specific species and forests. One example of such policy is the mahogany market prohibition in Brazil. We find evidence that the shutting down of this market combined with poor enforcement has led to an even larger volume of illegal mahogany harvesting. We use this to test whether municipalities where mahogany naturally occurs experienced increased deforestation after prohibition and find evidence that this was indeed the case. Our paper contains two main contributions: (i) evaluation of the impact of a logging ban policy on deforestation, and (ii) the testing of the hypothesis that harvesting of high-value timber indirectly leads to large-scale deforestation. To our best knowledge, no study has attempted to directly estimate this hypothesis, despite its prevalence in the tropical deforestation literature and its use to at least partly justify forest protection policies such as logging bans.

 

21/10/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Emanuel Ornelas – EESP-FGV

The Limits of Political Compromise: Debt Ceilings and Political Competition

Abstract: We study the desirability of limits on the public debt and of political competition in an economy where political parties alternate in office. Due to rent-seeking motives, incumbents have an incentive to set public expenditures above the socially optimal level. Parties cannot commit to future policies, but they can forge a political compromise where each party curbs excessive spending when in office if it expects future governments to do the same. We find that, if there are strict limits on government borrowing, intense political competition can foster a compromise that yields the efficient outcome. In contrast, if the government is free to issue debt, vigorous political competition can render a compromise unsustainable and drive the economy to immiseration. Our analysis thus suggests a legislative tradeoff between restricting political competition and constraining the ability of governments to issue debt.

 

19/10/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: José Gustavo Féres – IPEA – RJ

Determinants of Amazon Deforestation: The Role of Off-Farm Income

Abstract: This paper aims at assessing the determinants of Amazon deforestation, with an emphasis on the role played by off-farm income. We first present a microeconomic model which relates off-farm income to deforestation patterns. We then test the empirical implications by using data on the 2006 Brazilian Agricultural Census. Our results suggest that an increase in off-farm income tends to reduce deforestation. This may be explained by the fact that greater off-farm opportunities tends to increase the opportunity cost of farm labor. Results also show that smallholders are less responsive to the increase in the returns of off-farm activities than large ones, which is in line with our hypothesis of labor market imperfections regarding off-farm activities.

 

16/10/2015 (sexta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Rodrigo Bandeira de Mello – EAESP-FGV

Betting on the Winner: The Effect of Local Elections on Corporate Political Activity Outcomes

Abstract: How does welfare change in the short- and long-run in high wage countries when integrating with low wage economies like China? Even if consumers benet from lower prices, there can be significant welfare losses from increases in unemployment and lower wages. I construct a dynamic multi-sector-country Ricardian trade model that incorporates both search frictions and labor mobility frictions. I then structurally estimate this model using cross-country sector-level data and quantify both the potential losses to workers and benefi
ts to consumers arising from China’s integration into the global economy. I find that overall welfare increases in northern economies, both in the transition period and in the new steady state equilibrium. In import competing sectors, however, workers bear a costly transition, experiencing lower wages and a rise in unemployment. I validate the micro implications of the model using employer-employee panel data.

 

05/10/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: João Paulo Pessoa – FGV-Sao Paulo School of Economics

International Competition and Labor Market Adjustment

Abstract: How does welfare change in the short- and long-run in high wage countries when integrating with low wage economies like China? Even if consumers benet from lower prices, there can be significant welfare losses from increases in unemployment and lower wages. I construct a dynamic multi-sector-country Ricardian trade model that incorporates both search frictions and labor mobility frictions. I then structurally estimate this model using cross-country sector-level data and quantify both the potential losses to workers and benefi
ts to consumers arising from China’s integration into the global economy. I find that overall welfare increases in northern economies, both in the transition period and in the new steady state equilibrium. In import competing sectors, however, workers bear a costly transition, experiencing lower wages and a rise in unemployment. I validate the micro implications of the model using employer-employee panel data.

 

28/09/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Mauro Rodrigues – FEA-USP

Política Comercial, Crescimento e Desigualdade

Abstract: Este artigo utiliza um modelo de Heckscher-Ohlin dinâmico para entender impactos de restrições comerciais sobre crescimento e distribuição de renda. Há duas hipóteses fundamentais: o setor capital-intensivo é sujeito a economias de escala, e os indivíduos são heterogêneos em suas dotações iniciais de capital. Supomos, ainda, uma economia inicialmente aberta e especializada na produção do bem trabalho-intensivo. Uma restrição comercial é então implantada de modo a proibir completamente a entrada de bens produzidos externamente. Mostramos que tal política levará a acumulação de capital e crescimento da renda per capita no longo prazo somente se o mercado interno do país for suficientemente grande. Independentemente da escala da economia, entretanto, a desigualdade de renda será ampliada. Quantitativamente, o modelo é capaz de explicar cerca de 25% do crescimento da renda per capita brasileira nos anos 1960 e 1970, e mais de 30% do aumento no índice de Gini, desde que a correlação entre dotação de capital e produtividade do trabalho seja elevada.

 

18/09/2015 (sexta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Javier Papa – Columbia University

Squaring the circle: the unexpected success of latecomer firms from Latin America

Abstract: This paper examines how and why a latecomer firm facing adverse economic and policy conditions might still be able to build up enough technological capabilities to catch up with global competitors in renewable energy systems. Drawing on latecomer firm theory and evolutionary economics, we conduct an in-depth case study of an unusually successful firm from Latin America over a 40 year period. The research suggests that the gradual and coherent formation of ‘contrarian’ technological capabilities eventually pays off in the long term.

 

14/09/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Giammario Impullitti – University of Nottingham

Firm Dynamics and Residual Inequality in Open Economies

Abstract: Increasing wage inequality between similar workers plays an important role for overall inequality trends in industrialized societies. To analyze this pattern, we incorporate directed job search into a dynamic model of international trade with heterogeneous firms and homogeneous workers. Wage inequality across and within firms results from their different hiring needs along their life cycles and the convexity of their adjustment costs. The interaction between wage posting and firm growth explains some recent empirical regularities on firm and labor market dynamics. Fitting the model to capture key features obtained from German linked employer-employee data, we investigate how falling trade costs and institutional reforms interact in shaping labor market outcomes. Focusing on the period 1996-2007, we find that neither trade nor key features of the Hartz labor market reforms account for the sharp increase in residual inequality observed in the data but can explain the fall in unemployment. By contrast, inequality appears highly responsive to the increase in product market competition possibly triggered by domestic regulatory reform.

 

04/09/2015 (sexta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Giuliana Isabella – FEA/USP

Impacts from Product Type and Representation Type On Perception of Justice and Price Fairness: Behavioral and Physiological Analysis.

Abstract: Consumers make purchasing decisions every day. This paper aims to investigate perceptions of justice and price unfairness, where the product (hedonic vs. utilitarian) is presented either in a more abstract (verbal) or a more concrete way (photo) in a context of discriminatory pricing – a widely-employed market practice nowadays. Two behavioral and one physiological experimental studies were done. Behavioral results show an interaction between product and representation types. When products are represented only by words, consumers have to use their imagination; this lowers construal level, makes people less price sensitive to utilitarian products. However, such a result is not seen when products are represented by pictures. Physiological results showed differences in emotional responses between hedonic and utilitarian products but not in the representation type.

 

31/08/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Thorsten Beck – Cass Business School, City University London and CEPR

When Arm’s Length Is Too Far. Relationship Banking over the Credit Cycle.

Abstract: Using a novel way to identify relationship and transaction banks, we study how these lending techniques affect firms’ credit constraints. We link the lending techniques of banks in the vicinity of firms to these firms’ credit constraints at two contrasting points of the credit cycle. We show that relationship lending alleviates credit constraints during a downturn but not during a boom. The positive impact of relationship lending is stronger for small and opaque firms and in regions with a more severe downturn. Relationship lending mitigates the impact of a downturn on firm growth and does not constitute evergreening of loans.

 

26/08/2015 (quarta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Marinho Bertanha – University of Notre Dame / CORE-UcLouvain

Regression Discontinuity Design with Many Thresholds

Abstract: In recent years, numerous studies have employed regression discontinuity designs with many cutoffs as signing individuals to heterogeneous treatments. A common practice is to normalize all of the cutoffs to zero and estimate only one effect. This procedure identifies the average of local treatment effects weighted by the observed relative density of individuals at the existing cutoffs. However, researchers often want to make inferences on more meaningful average treatment effects (ATE) computed over general counterfactual distributions of individuals rather than simply the observed distribution of individuals local to existing cutoffs. In this paper, we propose a root-n consistent and asymptotically normal estimator for such ATEs when heterogeneity follows a non-parametric smooth function of cutoff characteristics. In the case of parametric heterogeneity, observations are optimally combined to minimize the mean squared error of the ATE estimator. Inference results are also provided for the fuzzy regression discontinuity case, where the parametric heterogeneity assumption yields identification of treatment effects on individuals who comply with at least one of the multiple treatments.

 

24/08/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Daniel Monte – EESP-FGV

Dynamic Matching Markets and the Deferred Acceptance Mechanism

Abstract: Many matching markets are dynamic, with one side’s priorities often depending on previous allocations. This creates opportunities for manipulations that do not exist in static matching problems. The school-choice problem, for example, exhibits dynamic features: students move considerably across schools and incumbent students and their siblings are often given the highest priorities. In such a dynamic environment, parents can manipulate the period-wise deferred acceptance (DA) mechanism— which has been widely implemented. We analyze the severity of these strategic incentives in dynamic markets. We prove that under a suitable restriction on the schools’ priorities, the fraction of agents with an incentive to manipulate the mechanism approaches zero as the market size increases. We also show that this restriction is tight; without it, the mechanism remains manipulable even in large markets. Finally, despite the significant computational complexity inherent in checking each possible strategy for a given player, we provide an algorithm with which to calculate the percentage of markets that can be successfully manipulated. Based on randomly generated data, we find this number to be very low: For markets with 100 schools, this percentage is only 1.58% when each school is endowed with a unit capacity; it drops to 0.04% when the capacity is twenty students per school. Our theoretical results together with our simulations, justify the implementation of the DA mechanism on a
period-by-period basis in dynamic markets, and provide further support for its wide use in practice.

 

21/08/2015 (sexta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante:  Anderson de Souza Sant’Anna – Fundação Dom Cabral

Liderança e formas de seu Desenvolvimento: Movimentos e Tendências.

Abstract: A proposta é fomentar uma discussão em torno da temática da liderança e formas de seu desenvolvimento, a partir de estudos e pesquisas conduzidas pelo Núcleo de Desenvolvimento de Pessoas e Liderança da Fundação Dom Cabral, em particular de achados de seu “Observatório de Liderança”, o qual tem como foco o monitoramento sistemático de temas, conteúdos e metodologias associadas às temáticas de pessoas e liderança, bem como formas de seu desenvolvimento, em nível nacional e internacional. Em linhas gerais, propõe-se uma conversa em torno de questões e desafios que não poderiam ficar ausentes da agenda de prioridades estratégicas das organizações no que se refere às dimensões Pessoas e Liderança no século XXI, bem como formas de seu desenvolvimento.

 

06/08/2015 (quinta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Bernard Herskovic – University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)

Networks in Production: Asset Pricing Implications

Abstract: This paper studies asset pricing in a multisector model in which sectors are connected to each other through an input-output network. Changes in the structure of the network are sources of systematic risk reflected in equilibrium asset prices. There are two key characteristics of the network that matter for asset prices: network concentration and network sparsity. Network concentration measures the degree to which equilibrium output is dominated by few large sectors while network sparsity measures the average input specialization of the economy. Furthermore, these two production-based asset pricing factors are determined by the structure of the network of production and can be computed from input-output data. By sorting stocks based on their exposure to the network factors, I find a return spread of 6% per year on portfolios sorted on sparsity-beta and -4% per year on portfolios sorted on concentration-beta. These return gaps cannot be explained by standard asset pricing models such as the CAPM or the Fama-French three-factor model. A calibrated model matches the network factor betas and return spreads alongside other asset pricing moments.

 

29/06/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Daniel da Mata – IPEA

The Economic Effects of Credit in a Climate-Vulnerable Area

Abstract: We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in credit policy to study the real effects of credit. Producers in the semiarid, Brazil’s poorest region, are eligible to subsidized, abundant credit provided by a state-owned bank with the goal of promoting regional development. Based on objective climate criteria, the federal government added new localities to the Brazilian semiarid, while some places barely missed to be included. We find that subsidized credit had no aggregate impact on per capita Gross Domestic Product of the added localities. To shed light on the baseline results, we exploit detailed institutional information to understand the role of local banking. We document an increase in risky loans, but we find neither a crowding-out of credit to other banks nor a rise in delinquency rates.

 

23/06/2015 (terça-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Eduardo M. Azevedo – Wharton

Perfect Competition in Markets with Adverse Selection

Abstract: Adverse selection is an important problem in many markets. Governments respond to it with complex regulations: mandates, community rating, subsidies, risk adjustment, and regulation of contract characteristics. This paper proposes a perfectly competitive model of a market with adverse selection. Prices are determined by zero-profit conditions, and the set of traded contracts is determined by free entry. Crucially for applications, contract characteristics are endogenously determined, consumers may have multiple dimensions of private information, and an equilibrium always exists. Equilibrium corresponds to the limit of a differentiated products Bertrand game. We apply the model to show that mandates can increase efficiency but have unintended consequences. An insurance mandate can increase adverse selection on the intensive margin and lead some consumers to purchase less coverage. Optimal regulation addresses adverse selection on both the extensive and the intensive margins, can be described by a sufficient statistics formula, and includes elements that are commonly used in practice.

 

22/06/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Fabio Ribas Chaddad – University of Missouri / Insper

Abstract: Trata-se do quarto seminário de discussão do meu livro Economics and Organization of Brazilian Agriculture. Nesse seminário iremos apresentar como o Mato Grosso tornou-se um grande celeiro de produção de alimentos nos últimos 30 anos.

 

12/06/2015 (sexta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Rafael Teixeira – UNISINOS

Tridimensional Supply Evaluation Matrix: A Supplier Management Instrument

Abstract: One of the greatest challenges faced by organizations is to diagnose the suppliers that present risks to the buyer company’s operations. Supply chain literature points out the necessity of building an effective supplier management instrument, but the existent models that evaluate aspects related to purchasing have never been empirically validated. This research aims at building an instrument to evaluate and classify suppliers, considering three dimensions: supply complexity, impact on results, and supply dependence. A quantitative approach was used to validate the data collected from 178 companies, and to classify their suppliers in the matrix, using structural equations modeling.

 

08/06/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Thomas Fujiwara – Princeton University

Estimating Habit Formation in Voting

Abstract: We estimate habit formation in voting—the effect of past on current turnout—by exploiting transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on U.S. presidential elections from 1952-2012, we find that precipitation on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current turnout by 0.7-0.9 points. Further analyses suggest that habit formation operates by reinforcing the direct consumption value of voting and that our estimates may be amplified by social spillovers.

 

08/06/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Thomas Fujiwara – Princeton University

Estimating Habit Formation in Voting

Abstract: We estimate habit formation in voting—the effect of past on current turnout—by exploiting transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on U.S. presidential elections from 1952-2012, we find that precipitation on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current turnout by 0.7-0.9 points. Further analyses suggest that habit formation operates by reinforcing the direct consumption value of voting and that our estimates may be amplified by social spillovers.

 

01/06/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Rodrigo R. Soares – Sao Paulo School of Economics – FGV

Competition and the Racial Wage Gap: Testing Becker’s Model of Employer Discrimination

Abstract: According to Becker’s (1957) theory of taste based discrimination, pure economic rents are necessary for discrimination to be observed in the labor market. Increased competition and reduced rents in the market for final goods should therefore lead to reduced labor market discrimination. We look at the episode of trade liberalization in Brazil in the beginning of the 1990s to study the effect of increased competition in the final goods market on racial discrimination in the labor market. Changes in tariffs and initial employment structures are used to show that, in locations where there was a larger increase in exposure to foreign
competition between 1990 and 1995, there were also larger declines in the conditional racial wage gap between 1991 and 2000. As predicted by theory, the initial wage gap and its decline seemed to be more pronounced in regions with more employment in concentrated sectors and with stronger preferences for discrimination. The change in the racial wage gap was not associated with changes in returns to productive attributes, in the structure of employment, or in other observed labor market outcomes.

 

29/05/2015 (sexta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante:  Felipe M. Borini – ESPM – USP

Reverse Innovation Antecedents

Abstract: Purpose: The objective of the present study is to determine the antecedents of reverse innovation.
Design/methodology/approach: Data were collected through an online survey administered using telephone assistance and sent to the 1,000 largest (in terms of revenue) foreign subsidiaries in Brazil. The responding companies numbered one hundred and sixty-seven. For the data analysis, we chose the statistical technique of structural equation modeling (SEM).
Findings: The article shows that reverse innovation is related to headquarters’ support, autonomy, and integration. Specifically, we consider the power of strategic integration between headquarters and subsidiaries as one of the important antecedents of reverse innovation.
Practical implications: Integration has an important role to reverse innovation. In order to stimulate integration, the executive of a subsidiary can make such efforts as invest in the mechanism of the relationship and exchange knowledge with headquarters. For example, it is recommended explore all travel for headquarters to establish more accurate alignment with parent executives and explore expatriates from headquarters to learn about the main processes of the company and to promote subsidiary innovations.
Originality/value: Literature contains some articles discussing and relating some cases of reverse innovation. However, this paper shows the organizational structure necessary for reverse innovation.

 

25/05/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante:  Rafael Matta – University of Amsterdam

Debt Restructuring Costs and Firm Bankruptcy: Evidence from CDS Spreads.

Abstract: A recent change to the US tax code reduced the costs creditors incur when restructuring debt out of court. IRS Regulation TD9599 applied to a subset of debt contracts, allowing us to use a triple-differences approach to identify the degree to which borrowers and lenders are affected by restructuring costs. We first model the tax regime to show how CDS spreads can be used to differentiate costs associated with in-court versus out-of-court restructurings. Empirically, we show that markets an-ticipated significantly more out-of-court renegotiations (in lieu of bankruptcies) with the passage of TD9599. CDS spreads declined by record figures on the regulation’s announcement and the drop is concentrated among distressed firms with high ratios of syndicated loans | the category of debt treated by TD9599. Stock returns of these distressed firms as well as of their syndicate lenders out-performed the market on the announcement of TD9599. Examining the larger consequences of the tax change, we find that together with the reduction in bankruptcy risk, distressed firms’ access to syndicated loans expanded and their loan markups declined. The analysis is important in showing how altering regulatory constraints can improve welfare in financial distress..

 

15/05/2015 (sexta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante:  Eduardo Kazuo Kayo – FEA/USP

R&D, Acquisition Strategy, and Firm Value: Are New Economy Firms Different?

Abstract: We investigate whether the effort level exerted by applicants at UNICAMP, a large Brazilian university, changed significantly following the instauration of an affirmative action policy based on awarding bonus points on an admission exam. We show that students coming a disadvantaged background were significantly more likely to be admitted after the introduction of the policy. Overall, our results suggest small changes in effort occurring at the middle/bottom of the ability distribution for the most competitive programs. Despite benefiting from a large bonus on the admission test, we do not observe a significant increase in the proportion of applicants coming from public secondary schools, but we do observe a small change in the distribution of measured academic ability for those that apply.

 

04/05/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Fernanda Estevan – FEA-USP

How does affirmative action without quota work? Evidence from a large Brazilian university

Abstract: We investigate whether the effort level exerted by applicants at UNICAMP, a large Brazilian university, changed significantly following the instauration of an affirmative action policy based on awarding bonus points on an admission exam. We show that students coming a disadvantaged background were significantly more likely to be admitted after the introduction of the policy. Overall, our results suggest small changes in effort occurring at the middle/bottom of the ability distribution for the most competitive programs. Despite benefiting from a large bonus on the admission test, we do not observe a significant increase in the proportion of applicants coming from public secondary schools, but we do observe a small change in the distribution of measured academic ability for those that apply.

 

27/04/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Gil Riella – UNB – Universidade de Brasília

Rational Choice with Categories.

Abstract: We propose a model of rational choice in the presence of categories.
Given a subjective categorization of the choice set, the agent, when faced with a choice problem, picks the best elements available from each category. The model explains certain important deviations from the Weak Axiom of Revealed Preferences, while being fully characterized by other observable properties of the agent’s choice behaviour. In the more general framework, our representation generalizes the maximization
of incomplete preferences. For the specific case in which categories are disjoint, we prove that it is equivalent to the maximization of incomplete preferences plus a somewhat intuitive property.

 

24/04/2015 (sexta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Bertrand Quélin – HEC Paris

The private scope in Public-Private Partnerships: A Cross-Country Investigation

Abstract: Management scholars have expressed an increased interest in the strategic aspects involving the delivery of public services, including the study of the emergent public-private partnerships
(PPPs) and the organizational choices made by public and private actors. In the present article, we analyze the determinants of the private scope in PPPs—i.e. the extent to which private actors
are more involved in various, complex activities of the partnership—in a cross-country, cross-industry setting. We examine the effects of public and private cumulative experience in PPPs, and the potential impact of the national institutional quality and the level of industry development on the private scope in PPPs. Our model is tested through an empirical work using
a database covering 807 cases, 11 industries and 66 countries. We find that host-country accumulated experience in dealing with PPPs and superior quality of institutions increases private scope. Our results also show that private experience leads to an increased involvement of private actors in countries with better institutions and when the industry addressed by the PPP is incipient. Hence, by highlighting the determinants of governance choices and extent of
private involvement in PPPs, our study offers implications for both theory and practice in a topic that have still received little attention in the strategy scholarship.

 

15/04/2015 (quarta-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Leonardo Bursztyn – Anderson School of Management, UCLA and NBER

How does peer pressure affect educational investments?

Abstract: When effort or investment is observable to peers, students may act to avoid social penalties by conforming to prevailing norms. We explore this hypothesis in two settings. We first consider a natural experiment that newly introduced a leaderboard into existing computer-based remedial high school courses, revealing top performers to the rest of the class. The result was a 24 percent decline in performance. The decline appears to be driven by a desire to avoid the leaderboard; for example, students performing at the top of the class prior to the change, those most at risk of appearing on the leaderboard, had a 40 percent decline in performance, while those previously at the bottom improved slightly. Our second setting involves a field experiment that offered students complimentary access to an online SAT preparatory course. Signup forms differed randomly across students only in the extent to which they emphasized that their decision would be kept private from classmates. In non-honors classes, the signup rate was 11 percentage points lower when decisions were public rather than private. Signup in honors classes was unaffected. For students taking both honors and non-honors classes, the response differed greatly based on which peers they happened to be sitting with at the time of the offer, and thus to whom their decision would be revealed. When offered the course in one of their non-honors classes (where peer signup rates are low), they were 15 percentage points less likely to sign up if the decision was public rather than private. But when offered the course in an honors class (where peer signup rates are high), they were 8 percentage points more likely to sign up if the decision was public. These results show that students are highly responsive to who their peers are and what the prevailing norm is when they make decisions.

 

13/04/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Alberto Cavallo – MIT – Massachusetts Institute of Technology

PPPs and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Online Data

 

07/04/2015 (terça-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Fabio Ribas Chaddad – University of Missouri / Insper

The Economics and Organization of Brazilian Agriculture

Abstract: Este seminário é o terceiro na série de seminários de discussão do meu livro The Economics and Organization of Brazilian Agriculture. Neste terceiro seminário, iremos discutir o papel de organizações privadas nos ganhos de produtividade alcançados pela agricultura brasileira nos últimos 40 anos.

 

06/04/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Ricardo Dias de Oliveira Brito – Insper

Será que o brasileiro está poupando o suficiente para se aposentar?

Abstract: Este artigo responde à pergunta: qual o acúmulo de patrimônio necessário para que um brasileiro possa manter o seu padrão de consumo na aposentadoria? Baseado na Teoria do Ciclo de Vida, simulamos diferentes cenários de renda domiciliar, tamanho de família e circunstâncias de vida, para determinar a poupança complementar necessária aos futuros beneficiários do Regime Geral de Previdência Social (RGPS). Mantidas as elevadas taxas de reposição, demonstramos que mais de 95% da população não necessitam poupar durante a vida ativa, pois desfrutarão de um aumento da renda “livre” per capita na aposentadoria. Ou seja, surpreendentemente, uma baixa taxa de poupança voluntária é a reação correta da perspectiva do brasileiro médio que planeja um consumo estável, crente na manutenção do arranjo previdenciário vigente. Não fosse o altíssimo spread bancário, seria ótimo para o brasileiro médio se endividar na fase ativa para elevar seu nível de consumo.

 

23/03/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Gabriel Ulyssea – PUC-RJ

Do Entry Regulation and Taxes Hinder Firm Creation and Formalization? Evidence from Brazil

Abstract: What are the effects of eliminating registration costs and reducing taxes on firm creation and formalization? We answer this question by estimating the impacts of a large-scale formalization program in Brazil. We explore exogenous variation in access to the program across time, regions and industries using individual panel data. We show that reducing registration costs is not a sufficient condition to
induce small informal entrepreneurs to formalize nor to foster the creation of new formal businesses. Our unique empirical setting also allows us to separately identify the impact of reducing taxes once registration costs had already been eliminated. We find modest effects on formalization and none on the creation of new formal
businesses.

 

17/03/2015 (terça-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Peter G. Klein – University of Missouri/ Norwegian School of Economics

Entrepreneurship and Desperate Poverty: Biopharmaceutical Innovation in China, India, and Brazil

Abstract: Poverty is intricately linked to pervasive underlying health problems, including infectious diseases that are rare in wealthy countries. Prior research has documented that leading bio-pharmaceutical firms have not invested comprehensively in diseases that mainly affect patients in developing countries. Theory suggests that indigenous firms may have a greater incentive to invest in diseases that primarily affect poor patients than large biopharmaceutical multinationals. Yet little empirical evidence exists of significant biopharmaceutical innovation in emerging markets. In this paper, we provide evidence from three countries where poverty is prevalent — Brazil, China, and India — that a growing number of indigenous biopharmaceutical companies are in-vesting in innovation on diseases that primarily affect the poor. The results suggest a subtle set of interrelationships as co-located firms benefit from spillovers across research projects. We identify complementarities for performance in the clustering of disease-targeted projects but substitution effects for performance in the clustering of firms. These results indicate that indigenous bio-pharmaceutical firms are most productive when they co-specialize to maximize knowledge spill-overs and minimize competition for funding and knowledge workers.

 

16/03/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: João M. P. De Mello – Insper

Short-Selling Restrictions and Returns: a Natural Experiment

Abstract: Restrictions on short-selling may impede market participants from fully expressing their opinions about an asset, causing departures from price efficiency (Miller, 1977). Measuring the impact of short-selling restriction on returns has been elusive because the decision to sell short reflects expectations on returns. We measure the causal impact of short-selling restrictions on returns by taking advantage of an unique dataset and an unique source of exogenous variation in rental fees. In Brazil during the 2010 – 2013 period rental transaction from individual investors to mutual funds carried an implicit tax discount on days of distribution of Interest on Net Equity (IoNE). The possibility of tax arbitrage produces an exogenous spike in rental and short interest during the days surrounding IoNE distribution, making it prohibitively expensive to short-sell for speculative reasons. Our data contains all rental transaction and the identity of the parts, thus allowing us identify transactions for tax arbitrage. We find that the variation of rental fees induced by the tax arbitrage operations has a large impact on abnormal returns, corroborating Miller’s hypothesis.

 

10/03/2015 (terça-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Michalis P. Stamatogiannis – University of Bath

Robust Econometric Inference for Stock Return Predictability

Abstract: This study examines stock return predictability via lagged financial variables with un- known stochastic properties. We propose a novel testing procedure that (1) robustifies inference to regressors. degree of persistence, (2) accommodates testing the joint predictive ability of financial variables in multiple regression, (3) is easy to implement as it is based on a linear estimation procedure, and (4) can be used for long-horizon predictability tests. We provide some evidence in favor of short-horizon predictability during the 1927-2012 period. Nevertheless, this evidence almost entirely disappears in the post.1952 period. Moreover, predictability becomes weaker, not stronger, as the predictive horizon increases. (JEL C12, C32, C58, G12, G14).

 

02/03/2015 (segunda-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Vladimir Teles – FGV / SP

 

24/02/2015 (terça-feira) – 12h – Palestrante: Igor Cunha – Nova School of Business and Economics

The Economic Effects of Public Financing: Evidence from Municipal Bond Ratings Recalibration

Abstract: We study how changes in the supply of local public financing affect economic outcomes by exploring Moody’s municipal bond credit ratings scale recalibration. Following the ratings recalibration, upgraded municipalities increase bond issuance and experience a reduction in their borrowing costs relative to non-upgraded municipalities. This exogenous shock to the supply of credit to local governments leads to greater increases in local government employment, private sector employment, and total income of upgraded municipalities relative to otherwise similar municipalities that are not upgraded. Private sector job creation is concentrated in the non-tradable, education, and health sectors, which depend primarily on local demand and government transfers.

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