Academic Seminars

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academic

Insper’s Academic Research area offers a rich calendar of seminars open to both students and professors. Professors from various institutions in Brazil and abroad present papers on cutting-edge research, which are discussed with the professors from Insper. Many of these seminars are also used to evaluate candidates to Insper’s team of full-time professors.

Academic Seminars 2016

16/08/16 (tuesday) – 12h – Speaker: Naercio Menezes – Insper
Local:
Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

Tema: Minimum Wages, Early Child Development and Human Capital Outcomes: Longitudinal Evidence from Brazil

This paper examines the effect of the average real value of the minimum wage in the first months of life on early child development and long-run human capital outcomes for a cohort born in Pelotas (Brazil) in a period of hyperinflation. It uses the variation coming from the day of birth within a month to identify the effects of the minimum wage on human capital. It shows that the average daily minimum wage during the first year of life has a large effect on weight, height and socioemotional skills when the children reach 11 year-olds and also on schooling and high school graduation when they are 18, but only for the children of low educated mothers.

 

23/08/16 (tuesday) – 12h – Speaker: Marcos Nakaguma – USP
Local: Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

Tema: Public versus Secret Voting in Committtees

This paper studies a committee decision-making problem. Committee members are heterogeneous in their competence, they are biased towards one of the alternatives and career oriented, and they can choose whether to vote or abstain. The interaction between career concern and bias affects the voting behavior of members depending on transparency of individual votes. We show that transparency attenuates the pre-existing biases of competent members and exacerbates the biases of incompetent members. Public voting leads to better decisions when the magnitude of the bias is large, while secret voting performs better otherwise. We provide experimental evidence supporting our theoretical conclusions.

 

23/08/16 (tuesday) – 18h – Speaker: Ishani Aggarwal – FGV Rio
Local: Sala 410 – 4th floor

Tema: Cognitive Diversity, Collective Intelligence and Learning in Teams

Team learning, or the rate at which teams improve as a function of experience, is the foundation of organizational learning. We study how cognitive style diversity in teams—or diversity in team members encode, organize and process information—indirectly influences team learning. We identify team collective intelligence, or the ability of teams to perform at consistently high levels across a wide array of domains, as a cognitive mechanism that influences this relationship. Using tenets of the law of requisite variety, we predict and find that cognitive style diversity has a curvilinear—inverted U-shaped—relationship with collective intelligence. Collective intelligence is further positively related to the rate at which teams improve in their implicit coordination, a process essential for team effectiveness. This research advances our understanding of the compositional factors and emergent states that explain why some teams demonstrate high levels of team learning in dynamic situations while others do not.

 

30/08/16 (tuesday) – 12h – Speaker: Nelson Camanho – CATÓLICA LISBON BUSINESS & ECONOMICS
Local:
Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

Tema: The Mortgage Illusion

We propose and test a new heuristic on the decision to buy or rent a house: the mortgage illusion, in which potential home buyers are influenced by the comparison between the monthly rental payment and the monthly mortgage installment, for fixed rate mortgages. We find experimental evidence that home buyers are more likely to buy when the monthly rental payment is higher than the monthly mortgage installment. Our experimental designs and results are robust to ownership bias and home buyers’ budget constraints. Financial literacy and numeracy do not help to overcome the mortgage illusion.

 

06/09/16 (tuesday) – 12h – Speaker: Vladimir Ponczek – FGV-SP
Local:
Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

 

13/09/16 (tuesday) – 12h – Speaker: Paula Pereda –USP
Local:
Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

Tema: The Value of Brazilian Climate: New Evidence from a Spatial Equilibrium Model with Two Sectors

In Brazil, winter temperatures are expected to increase up to 8.7 degrees Fahrenheit in certain regions of the country. As changes in the climate unfold, quantifying the effects of these changes on welfare is crucial in order to inform policy. In this paper, we set up a spatial equilibrium model to estimate the willingness to pay for climate amenities in Brazil. To account for the role of climate on agriculture wages, we adapt the framework and model two local productive sectors – agriculture and non-agriculture. Our estimates indicate that, even in milder climate settings like Brazil, individuals are willing to pay large amounts to increase temperatures during colder seasons and decrease temperatures during warmer seasons, although the willingness to pay for climate amenities is much higher among non-agriculture workers. Counterfactual simulations from different climate scenarios reveal an increase in equilibrium migration rates and sizable negative effects of climate change on welfare for non-agriculture workers. The simulations also indicate that climate change effects on welfare for agriculture workers were positive, which can be attributed to sharp predicted increases in temperature during the winter season that have offset the disutility from increased summer temperatures.

20/09/16 (tuesday) – 12h – Speaker: Mauricio Cortez Reis – IPEA
Local:
Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

Abstract: Fields of study and the earnings gap by in Brazil

Workers with tertiary education in Brazil earn three times more than those with a lower level of schooling. Thus, the attainment of a bachelor’s or graduate degree by a black worker usually provides important benefits at the individual level. However, an educational improvement of this type does not assure equal labor market outcomes compared to white workers with the same level of education. The labor earnings differential by race in Brazil is high even among individuals who completed at least a bachelor’s degree. This paper investigates this labor earnings gap, emphasizing the unequal distribution of whites and blacks across fields of study. Evidence indicates that disparities in the distributions of racial groups across fields of study help explain 18% of the total median earnings differential in 2000 and 33% in 2010, accounting for most of the gap between white and black workers due to characteristic effects in this latter period.

27/09/16 (tuesday) – 12h – Speaker: Claudio Ferraz – PUC Rio
Local:
Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

Abstract: Do government audits reduce corruption? Estimating the impact of exposing corrupt politicians

Political corruption is considered a major impediment to economic development, and yet it remains pervasive throughout the world. This paper examines the extent to which government audits of public resources can reduce corruption by enhancing political and judiciary accountability. We do so in the context of Brazil’s anti- corruption program, which randomly audits municipalities for their use of federal funds. We find that being audited in the past reduces future corruption by 8 percent, while also increasing the likelihood of experiencing a subsequent legal action by 20 percent. We interpret these reduced-form findings through a political agency model, which we structurally estimate. Based on our estimated model, the reduction in corruption comes mostly from the audits increasing the perceived threat of the non-electoral costs of engaging in corruption.

04/10/16 (tuesday) – 12h – Speaker: Felipe Iachan – EPGE
Local:
Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

Abstract: The Choice Channel of Financial Innovation

Financial innovations in recent decades have vastly expanded portfolio choice. We theoretically investigate how greater choice a§ects investorsísavings and asset returns, when investors speculate on their heterogeneous beliefs. Under mild assumptions, we establish a choice channel by which greater portfolio choice induces investors to save more. The e§ect on asset returns depends on the type of Önancial innovation. Portfolio customization (access to risky assets other than the market portfolio) reduces the risk-free rate and leaves the risk premia unchanged. We also analyze participation (access to the market portfolio) and securitization (ability to issue risk-free debt to purchase risky assets).

05/10/16 (wednesday) – 12h – Speaker: Abhishek Nayak – IE Business School
Local: Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

Abstract: Strategic Media Selection during Economic Fluctuations: Choice between Asynchronous and Simultaneous Media Usage

Recessions lead to decreased disposable income and the resulting consumer spending cuts require marketers to strategically allocate their limited advertising budgets. Although research has shown that proactive and targeted campaigns by firms are more effective than decreased marketing efforts during economic downturns, changes in the influence of individual media on consumer purchases are largely unexplored. Today’s consumers are exposed to ‘simultaneous media’, effects of which could be different from ‘asynchronous media’. Using survey data from the US in the clothing category during the 2008 economic recession, we estimate the impacts of advertising media on purchase intentions. We analyze the changes in media influences across three critical periods – pre-recession, during recession and post-recession, to understand the evolution in behavioral patterns. We find that ‘simultaneous’ media usage during economic downturns has positive influence on purchases, while during stable periods, ‘asynchronous’ media usage is effective. We also find that all media synergies are not positive, as the effects of some media lose prominence while others become obsolete thus providing evidence of complementarity and substitutability across advertising mediums. Insights from this research can help marketers to allocate their budgets efficiently during recessions and identify relevant media synergies for consumer targeting.

10/10/16 (monday) – 12h – Speaker: Renato Barcelos – HEC Montréal
Local: Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

Abstract: How a Brand’s Tone of Voice on Social Media Influences Consumer Responses

Social media platforms enable firms to communicate directly and often publicly with individual consumers. In this research, four online studies investigate how the tone of voice used by firms (human vs. corporate) influences consumer responses (purchase intentions) on social media. Findings suggest that a human tone of voice is not always the firm’s best option. Factors such as consumer goals, situational involvement, and the valence of page posts interact with the firm’s tone of voice, and in some conditions a human tone of voice worsens consumer responses. Based on these findings, a set of guidelines for managers is proposed.

11/10/16 (tuesday) – 12h – Speaker: Ricardo Ceneviva– UERJ
Local: Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

13/10/16 (thursday) – 12h – Speaker: Giuliana Isabella – Insper
Local: Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

18/10/16 (tuesday) – 12h – Speaker: Carlos Eugenio da Costa – EPGE
Local: Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor
18/10/16 (tuesday) – 18h – Speaker: Brayden King – Northwestern University
Local: Sala 410 – 4º Andar

25/10/16 (tuesday) – 12h – Speaker: Lorenzo Bastianello – IMPA/Paris School of Economics
Local: Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

Abstract: Target-based solutions for Nash bargaining

We revisit the Nash model for two-person bargaining. A mediator knows agents’ ordinal preferences over feasible proposals, but has incomplete information about their acceptance thresholds. We provide a behavioral characterization under which the mediator recommends a proposal that maximises the probability that bargainers strike an agreement. Some major solutions are recovered as special cases; in particular, we offer a straightforward interpretation for the product operator underlying the Nash solution.

01/11/16 (tuesday) – 12h – Speaker: Rafael Izbicki – UF São Carlos
Local: Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

Abstract: Converting High-dimensional Regression to High-dimensional Conditional Density-Estimation

There is a growing demand for nonparametric conditional density estimators (CDEs) in fields such as astronomy and economics. In cosmology, for example, one can dramatically improve estimates of the parameters that dictate the evolution of the Universe by working with full conditional densities instead of regression (i.e., conditional mean) estimates. More generally, standard regression falls short in any prediction problem where the distribution of the response is more complex with multi-modality, asymmetry or heteroscedastic noise. Nevertheless, much of the work on high-dimensional inference concerns regression and classification only. Here we propose FlexCode, a fully nonparametric approach to conditional density estimation that reformulates CDE as a non-parametric orthogonal series problem where the expansion coefficients are estimated by regression. By taking such an approach, one can efficiently estimate conditional densities in high dimensions by drawing upon the success in high-dimensional regression. Depending on the choice of regression procedure, our method can adapt to a variety of challenging high-dimensional settings with, for example, a large number of irrelevant components or nonlinear manifold structure in the data. We study the theoretical and empirical performance of our proposed method, and we compare our approach with traditional conditional density estimators on simulated as well real-world data. This is joint work with Ann B. Lee (Carnegie Mellon University).

08/11/16 (tuesday) – 12h – Speaker:Ivan Canay – Northwestern University
Local: Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

08/11/16 (tuesday) – 18h – Speaker: Octavio Martinez – INCAE Business School
Local: Sala 410 – 4º Andar

21/11/16 (tuesday) – 12h – Speaker: Paul Ferreira – Insper
Local: Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

22/11/16 (tuesday) – 12h – Speaker: Gabriel Cepaluni – UNESP
Local: Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

Abstract: Compulsory Voting Can Increase Political Inequality: Evidence from Brazil

One of the most robust findings on political institutions is that compulsory voting (CV) reduces the participation gap between poorer and wealthier voters. We present evidence that in Brazil, the largest country to use such a rule, CV increases inequality in turnout. We use individual-level data on 140 million Brazilian citizens and two age-based discontinuities to estimate the heterogeneous effects of CV by educational achievement, a strong proxy for socioeconomic status. Evidence from both thresholds shows that the causal effect of CV on turnout among the more educated is at least twice the size of the effect among those with less education. To explain this result, which is the opposite of what is predicted by the existing literature, we argue that nonmondnsdayetary penalties for abstention primarily affect middle- and upper-class voters and thus increase their turnout disproportionately. Survey evidence from a national sample provides evidence for the mechanism. Our results show that studies of CV should consider nonmonetary sanctions, as their effects can reverse standard predictions.

29/11/16 (tuesday) – 12h – Speaker: Klenio Barbosa – FGV-SP
Local: Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor

06/12/16 (tuesday) – 12h – Speaker: Natalia Bueno – Yale
Local: Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2nd floor
Abstract: When Governments Make Dreams Come True: The Political and Welfare Effects of Homeownership

 

Academic Seminars 2015

09/18/2015 (Fri) – Javier Papa – Columbia University
Squaring the circle: the unexpected success of latecomer firms from Latin America

Abstract: This paper examines how and why a latecomer firm facing adverse economic and policy conditions might still be able to build up enough technological capabilities to catch up with global competitors in renewable energy systems. Drawing on latecomer firm theory and evolutionary economics, we conduct an in-depth case study of an unusually successful firm from Latin America over a 40 year period. The research suggests that the gradual and coherent formation of ‘contrarian’ technological capabilities eventually pays off in the long term.

09/14/2015 (Mon) – Giammario Impullitti – University of Nottingham
Firm Dynamics and Residual Inequality in Open Economies

Abstract: Increasing wage inequality between similar workers plays an important role for overall inequality trends in industrialized societies. To analyze this pattern, we incorporate directed job search into a dynamic model of international trade with heterogeneous firms and homogeneous workers. Wage inequality across and within firms results from their different hiring needs along their life cycles and the convexity of their adjustment costs. The interaction between wage posting and firm growth explains some recent empirical regularities on firm and labor market dynamics. Fitting the model to capture key features obtained from German linked employer-employee data, we investigate how falling trade costs and institutional reforms interact in shaping labor market outcomes. Focusing on the period 1996-2007, we find that neither trade nor key features of the Hartz labor market reforms account for the sharp increase in residual inequality observed in the data but can explain the fall in unemployment. By contrast, inequality appears highly responsive to the increase in product market competition possibly triggered by domestic regulatory reform.

09/04/2015 (Fri) – Giuliana Isabella – FEA/USP
Impacts from Product Type and Representation Type On Perception of Justice and Price Fairness: Behavioral and Physiological Analysis.

Abstract: Consumers make purchasing decisions every day. This paper aims to investigate perceptions of justice and price unfairness, where the product (hedonic vs. utilitarian) is presented either in a more abstract (verbal) or a more concrete way (photo) in a context of discriminatory pricing – a widely-employed market practice nowadays. Two behavioral and one physiological experimental studies were done. Behavioral results show an interaction between product and representation types. When products are represented only by words, consumers have to use their imagination; this lowers construal level, makes people less price sensitive to utilitarian products. However, such a result is not seen when products are represented by pictures. Physiological results showed differences in emotional responses between hedonic and utilitarian products but not in the representation type.

08/31/2015 (Mon) – Thorsten Beck – Cass Business School, City University London and CEPR
When Arm’s Length Is Too Far. Relationship Banking over the Credit Cycle.

Abstract: Using a novel way to identify relationship and transaction banks, we study how these lending techniques affect firms’ credit constraints. We link the lending techniques of banks in the vicinity of firms to these firms’ credit constraints at two contrasting points of the credit cycle. We show that relationship lending alleviates credit constraints during a downturn but not during a boom. The positive impact of relationship lending is stronger for small and opaque firms and in regions with a more severe downturn. Relationship lending mitigates the impact of a downturn on firm growth and does not constitute evergreening of loans.

08/26/2015 (Wed) – Marinho Bertanha – University of Notre Dame / CORE-UcLouvain
Regression Discontinuity Design with Many Thresholds

Abstract: In recent years, numerous studies have employed regression discontinuity designs with many cutoffs as signing individuals to heterogeneous treatments. A common practice is to normalize all of the cutoffs to zero and estimate only one effect. This procedure identifies the average of local treatment effects weighted by the observed relative density of individuals at the existing cutoffs. However, researchers often want to make inferences on more meaningful average treatment effects (ATE) computed over general counterfactual distributions of individuals rather than simply the observed distribution of individuals local to existing cutoffs. In this paper, we propose a root-n consistent and asymptotically normal estimator for such ATEs when heterogeneity follows a non-parametric smooth function of cutoff characteristics. In the case of parametric heterogeneity, observations are optimally combined to minimize the mean squared error of the ATE estimator. Inference results are also provided for the fuzzy regression discontinuity case, where the parametric heterogeneity assumption yields identification of treatment effects on individuals who comply with at least one of the multiple treatments.

08/24/2015 (Mon) – Daniel Monte – EESP-FGV
Dynamic Matching Markets and the Deferred Acceptance Mechanism

Abstract: Many matching markets are dynamic, with one side’s priorities often depending on previous allocations. This creates opportunities for manipulations that do not exist in static matching problems. The school-choice problem, for example, exhibits dynamic features: students move considerably across schools and incumbent students and their siblings are often given the highest priorities. In such a dynamic environment, parents can manipulate the period-wise deferred acceptance (DA) mechanism— which has been widely implemented. We analyze the severity of these strategic incentives in dynamic markets. We prove that under a suitable restriction on the schools’ priorities, the fraction of agents with an incentive to manipulate the mechanism approaches zero as the market size increases. We also show that this restriction is tight; without it, the mechanism remains manipulable even in large markets. Finally, despite the significant computational complexity inherent in checking each possible strategy for a given player, we provide an algorithm with which to calculate the percentage of markets that can be successfully manipulated. Based on randomly generated data, we find this number to be very low: For markets with 100 schools, this percentage is only 1.58% when each school is endowed with a unit capacity; it drops to 0.04% when the capacity is twenty students per school. Our theoretical results together with our simulations, justify the implementation of the DA mechanism on a period-by-period basis in dynamic markets, and provide further support for its wide use in practice.

08/26/2015 (Wed) – Marinho Bertanha – University of Notre Dame / CORE-UcLouvain
Regression Discontinuity Design with Many Thresholds

Abstract: In recent years, numerous studies have employed regression discontinuity designs with many cutoffs as signing individuals to heterogeneous treatments. A common practice is to normalize all of the cutoffs to zero and estimate only one effect. This procedure identifies the average of local treatment effects weighted by the observed relative density of individuals at the existing cutoffs. However, researchers often want to make inferences on more meaningful average treatment effects (ATE) computed over general counterfactual distributions of individuals rather than simply the observed distribution of individuals local to existing cutoffs. In this paper, we propose a root-n consistent and asymptotically normal estimator for such ATEs when heterogeneity follows a non-parametric smooth function of cutoff characteristics. In the case of parametric heterogeneity, observations are optimally combined to minimize the mean squared error of the ATE estimator. Inference results are also provided for the fuzzy regression discontinuity case, where the parametric heterogeneity assumption yields identification of treatment effects on individuals who comply with at least one of the multiple treatments.

08/21/2015 (Fri) – Anderson de Souza Sant’Anna – Fundação Dom Cabral
Liderança e formas de seu Desenvolvimento: Movimentos e Tendências.

Abstract: A proposta é fomentar uma discussão em torno da temática da liderança e formas de seu desenvolvimento, a partir de estudos e pesquisas conduzidas pelo Núcleo de Desenvolvimento de Pessoas e Liderança da Fundação Dom Cabral, em particular de achados de seu “Observatório de Liderança”, o qual tem como foco o monitoramento sistemático de temas, conteúdos e metodologias associadas às temáticas de pessoas e liderança, bem como formas de seu desenvolvimento, em nível nacional e internacional. Em linhas gerais, propõe-se uma conversa em torno de questões e desafios que não poderiam ficar ausentes da agenda de prioridades estratégicas das organizações no que se refere às dimensões Pessoas e Liderança no século XXI, bem como formas de seu desenvolvimento.

08/06/2015 (Thu) – Bernard Herskovic – University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
Networks in Production: Asset Pricing Implications

Abstract: This paper studies asset pricing in a multisector model in which sectors are connected to each other through an input-output network. Changes in the structure of the network are sources of systematic risk reflected in equilibrium asset prices. There are two key characteristics of the network that matter for asset prices: network concentration and network sparsity. Network concentration measures the degree to which equilibrium output is dominated by few large sectors while network sparsity measures the average input specialization of the economy. Furthermore, these two production-based asset pricing factors are determined by the structure of the network of production and can be computed from input-output data. By sorting stocks based on their exposure to the network factors, I find a return spread of 6% per year on portfolios sorted on sparsity-beta and -4% per year on portfolios sorted on concentration-beta. These return gaps cannot be explained by standard asset pricing models such as the CAPM or the Fama-French three-factor model. A calibrated model matches the network factor betas and return spreads alongside other asset pricing moments.

06/29/2015 (Mon) – Daniel da Mata – IPEA
The Economic Effects of Credit in a Climate-Vulnerable Area

Abstract: We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in credit policy to study the real effects of credit. Producers in the semiarid, Brazil’s poorest region, are eligible to subsidized, abundant credit provided by a state-owned bank with the goal of promoting regional development. Based on objective climate criteria, the federal government added new localities to the Brazilian semiarid, while some places barely missed to be included. We find that subsidized credit had no aggregate impact on per capita Gross Domestic Product of the added localities. To shed light on the baseline results, we exploit detailed institutional information to understand the role of local banking. We document an increase in risky loans, but we find neither a crowding-out of credit to other banks nor a rise in delinquency rates.

06/23/2015 (Tue) – Eduardo M. Azevedo – Wharton
Perfect Competition in Markets with Adverse Selection

Abstract: Adverse selection is an important problem in many markets. Governments respond to it with complex regulations: mandates, community rating, subsidies, risk adjustment, and regulation of contract characteristics. This paper proposes a perfectly competitive model of a market with adverse selection. Prices are determined by zero-profit conditions, and the set of traded contracts is determined by free entry. Crucially for applications, contract characteristics are endogenously determined, consumers may have multiple dimensions of private information, and an equilibrium always exists. Equilibrium corresponds to the limit of a differentiated products Bertrand game. We apply the model to show that mandates can increase efficiency but have unintended consequences. An insurance mandate can increase adverse selection on the intensive margin and lead some consumers to purchase less coverage. Optimal regulation addresses adverse selection on both the extensive and the intensive margins, can be described by a sufficient statistics formula, and includes elements that are commonly used in practice.

06/22/2015 (Mon) – Fabio Ribas Chaddad – University of Missouri / Insper
Economics and Organization of Brazilian Agriculture

Abstract: Trata-se do quarto seminário de discussão do meu livro Economics and Organization of Brazilian Agriculture. Nesse seminário iremos apresentar como o Mato Grosso tornou-se um grande celeiro de produção de alimentos nos últimos 30 anos.

06/12/2015 (Fri) – Rafael Teixeira – UNISINOS
Tridimensional Supply Evaluation Matrix: A Supplier Management Instrument
Abstract: One of the greatest challenges faced by organizations is to diagnose the suppliers that present risks to the buyer company’s operations. Supply chain literature points out the necessity of building an effective supplier management instrument, but the existent models that evaluate aspects related to purchasing have never been empirically validated. This research aims at building an instrument to evaluate and classify suppliers, considering three dimensions: supply complexity, impact on results, and supply dependence. A quantitative approach was used to validate the data collected from 178 companies, and to classify their suppliers in the matrix, using structural equations modeling.

06/08/2015 (Mon) – Thomas Fujiwara – Princeton University
Estimating Habit Formation in Voting

Abstract: We estimate habit formation in voting—the effect of past on current turnout—by exploiting transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on U.S. presidential elections from 1952-2012, we find that precipitation on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current turnout by 0.7-0.9 points. Further analyses suggest that habit formation operates by reinforcing the direct consumption value of voting and that our estimates may be amplified by social spillovers.

06/08/2015 (Mon) – Thomas Fujiwara – Princeton University
Estimating Habit Formation in Voting

Abstract: We estimate habit formation in voting—the effect of past on current turnout—by exploiting transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on U.S. presidential elections from 1952-2012, we find that precipitation on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current turnout by 0.7-0.9 points. Further analyses suggest that habit formation operates by reinforcing the direct consumption value of voting and that our estimates may be amplified by social spillovers.

06/01/2015 (Mon) – Rodrigo R. Soares – Sao Paulo School of Economics – FGV
Competition and the Racial Wage Gap: Testing Becker’s Model of Employer Discrimination

Abstract: According to Becker’s (1957) theory of taste based discrimination, pure economic rents are necessary for discrimination to be observed in the labor market. Increased competition and reduced rents in the market for final goods should therefore lead to reduced labor market discrimination. We look at the episode of trade liberalization in Brazil in the beginning of the 1990s to study the effect of increased competition in the final goods market on racial discrimination in the labor market. Changes in tariffs and initial employment structures are used to show that, in locations where there was a larger increase in exposure to foreign competition between 1990 and 1995, there were also larger declines in the conditional racial wage gap between 1991 and 2000. As predicted by theory, the initial wage gap and its decline seemed to be more pronounced in regions with more employment in concentrated sectors and with stronger preferences for discrimination. The change in the racial wage gap was not associated with changes in returns to productive attributes, in the structure of employment, or in other observed labor market outcomes.

05/29/2015 (Fri) – Felipe M. Borini – ESPM – USP
Reverse Innovation Antecedents

Abstract: Purpose: The objective of the present study is to determine the antecedents of reverse innovation.
Design/methodology/approach: Data were collected through an online survey administered using telephone assistance and sent to the 1,000 largest (in terms of revenue) foreign subsidiaries in Brazil. The responding companies numbered one hundred and sixty-seven. For the data analysis, we chose the statistical technique of structural equation modeling (SEM). Findings: The article shows that reverse innovation is related to headquarters’ support, autonomy, and integration. Specifically, we consider the power of strategic integration between headquarters and subsidiaries as one of the important antecedents of reverse innovation.
Practical implications: Integration has an important role to reverse innovation. In order to stimulate integration, the executive of a subsidiary can make such efforts as invest in the mechanism of the relationship and exchange knowledge with headquarters. For example, it is recommended explore all travel for headquarters to establish more accurate alignment with parent executives and explore expatriates from headquarters to learn about the main processes of the company and to promote subsidiary innovations. Originality/value: Literature contains some articles discussing and relating some cases of reverse innovation. However, this paper shows the organizational structure necessary for reverse innovation.

05/25/2015 (Mon) – Rafael Matta – University of Amsterdam
Debt Restructuring Costs and Firm Bankruptcy: Evidence from CDS Spreads.

Abstract: A recent change to the US tax code reduced the costs creditors incur when restructuring debt out of court. IRS Regulation TD9599 applied to a subset of debt contracts, allowing us to use a triple-differences approach to identify the degree to which borrowers and lenders are affected by restructuring costs. We first model the tax regime to show how CDS spreads can be used to differentiate costs associated with in-court versus out-of-court restructurings. Empirically, we show that markets an-ticipated significantly more out-of-court renegotiations (in lieu of bankruptcies) with the passage of TD9599. CDS spreads declined by record figures on the regulation’s announcement and the drop is concentrated among distressed firms with high ratios of syndicated loans | the category of debt treated by TD9599. Stock returns of these distressed firms as well as of their syndicate lenders out-performed the market on the announcement of TD9599. Examining the larger consequences of the tax change, we find that together with the reduction in bankruptcy risk, distressed firms’ access to syndicated loans expanded and their loan markups declined. The analysis is important in showing how altering regulatory constraints can improve welfare in financial distress.

05/15/2015 (Fri) – Eduardo Kazuo Kayo – FEA/USP
R&D, Acquisition Strategy, and Firm Value: Are New Economy Firms Different?

Abstract: We investigate whether the effort level exerted by applicants at UNICAMP, a large Brazilian university, changed significantly following the instauration of an affirmative action policy based on awarding bonus points on an admission exam. We show that students coming a disadvantaged background were significantly more likely to be admitted after the introduction of the policy. Overall, our results suggest small changes in effort occurring at the middle/bottom of the ability distribution for the most competitive programs. Despite benefiting from a large bonus on the admission test, we do not observe a significant increase in the proportion of applicants coming from public secondary schools, but we do observe a small change in the distribution of measured academic ability for those that apply.

05/04/2015 (Mon) – Fernanda Estevan – FEA-USP
How does affirmative action without quota work? Evidence from a large Brazilian university

Abstract: We investigate whether the effort level exerted by applicants at UNICAMP, a large Brazilian university, changed significantly following the instauration of an affirmative action policy based on awarding bonus points on an admission exam. We show that students coming a disadvantaged background were significantly more likely to be admitted after the introduction of the policy. Overall, our results suggest small changes in effort occurring at the middle/bottom of the ability distribution for the most competitive programs. Despite benefiting from a large bonus on the admission test, we do not observe a significant increase in the proportion of applicants coming from public secondary schools, but we do observe a small change in the distribution of measured academic ability for those that apply.

04/27/2015 (Mon) – Gil Riella – UNB – Universidade de Brasília
Rational Choice with Categories.

Abstract: We propose a model of rational choice in the presence of categories.
Given a subjective categorization of the choice set, the agent, when faced with a choice problem, picks the best elements available from each category. The model explains certain important deviations from the Weak Axiom of Revealed Preferences, while being fully characterized by other observable properties of the agent’s choice behaviour. In the more general framework, our representation generalizes the maximization
of incomplete preferences. For the specific case in which categories are disjoint, we prove that it is equivalent to the maximization of incomplete preferences plus a somewhat intuitive property.

04/24/2015 (Fri) – Bertrand Quélin – HEC Paris
The private scope in Public-Private Partnerships: A Cross-Country Investigation

Abstract: Management scholars have expressed an increased interest in the strategic aspects involving the delivery of public services, including the study of the emergent public-private partnerships (PPPs) and the organizational choices made by public and private actors. In the present article, we analyze the determinants of the private scope in PPPs—i.e. the extent to which private actors are more involved in various, complex activities of the partnership—in a cross-country, cross-industry setting. We examine the effects of public and private cumulative experience in PPPs, and the potential impact of the national institutional quality and the level of industry development on the private scope in PPPs. Our model is tested through an empirical work using a database covering 807 cases, 11 industries and 66 countries. We find that host-country accumulated experience in dealing with PPPs and superior quality of institutions increases private scope. Our results also show that private experience leads to an increased involvement of private actors in countries with better institutions and when the industry addressed by the PPP is incipient. Hence, by highlighting the determinants of governance choices and extent of private involvement in PPPs, our study offers implications for both theory and practice in a topic that have still received little attention in the strategy scholarship.

04/15/2015 (Wed) – Leonardo Bursztyn – Anderson School of Management, UCLA and NBER
How does peer pressure affect educational investments?

Abstract: When effort or investment is observable to peers, students may act to avoid social penalties by conforming to prevailing norms. We explore this hypothesis in two settings. We first consider a natural experiment that newly introduced a leaderboard into existing computer-based remedial high school courses, revealing top performers to the rest of the class. The result was a 24 percent decline in performance. The decline appears to be driven by a desire to avoid the leaderboard; for example, students performing at the top of the class prior to the change, those most at risk of appearing on the leaderboard, had a 40 percent decline in performance, while those previously at the bottom improved slightly. Our second setting involves a field experiment that offered students complimentary access to an online SAT preparatory course. Signup forms differed randomly across students only in the extent to which they emphasized that their decision would be kept private from classmates. In non-honors classes, the signup rate was 11 percentage points lower when decisions were public rather than private. Signup in honors classes was unaffected. For students taking both honors and non-honors classes, the response differed greatly based on which peers they happened to be sitting with at the time of the offer, and thus to whom their decision would be revealed. When offered the course in one of their non-honors classes (where peer signup rates are low), they were 15 percentage points less likely to sign up if the decision was public rather than private. But when offered the course in an honors class (where peer signup rates are high), they were 8 percentage points more likely to sign up if the decision was public. These results show that students are highly responsive to who their peers are and what the prevailing norm is when they make decisions.

04/13/2015 (Mon) – Alberto Cavallo – MIT – Massachusetts Institute of Technology
PPPs and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Online Data

04/07/2015 (Tue) – Fabio Ribas Chaddad – University of Missouri / Insper
The Economics and Organization of Brazilian Agriculture

Abstract: Este seminário é o terceiro na série de seminários de discussão do meu livro The Economics and Organization of Brazilian Agriculture. Neste terceiro seminário, iremos discutir o papel de organizações privadas nos ganhos de produtividade alcançados pela agricultura brasileira nos últimos 40 anos.

04/06/2015 (Mon) – Ricardo Dias de Oliveira Brito – Insper
Será que o brasileiro está poupando o suficiente para se aposentar?

Abstract: Este artigo responde à pergunta: qual o acúmulo de patrimônio necessário para que um brasileiro possa manter o seu padrão de consumo na aposentadoria? Baseado na Teoria do Ciclo de Vida, simulamos diferentes cenários de renda domiciliar, tamanho de família e circunstâncias de vida, para determinar a poupança complementar necessária aos futuros beneficiários do Regime Geral de Previdência Social (RGPS). Mantidas as elevadas taxas de reposição, demonstramos que mais de 95% da população não necessitam poupar durante a vida ativa, pois desfrutarão de um aumento da renda “livre” per capita na aposentadoria. Ou seja, surpreendentemente, uma baixa taxa de poupança voluntária é a reação correta da perspectiva do brasileiro médio que planeja um consumo estável, crente na manutenção do arranjo previdenciário vigente. Não fosse o altíssimo spread bancário, seria ótimo para o brasileiro médio se endividar na fase ativa para elevar seu nível de consumo.

03/23/2015 (Mon) – Gabriel Ulyssea – PUC-RJ
Do Entry Regulation and Taxes Hinder Firm Creation and Formalization? Evidence from Brazil

Abstract: What are the effects of eliminating registration costs and reducing taxes on firm creation and formalization? We answer this question by estimating the impacts of a large-scale formalization program in Brazil. We explore exogenous variation in access to the program across time, regions and industries using individual panel data. We show that reducing registration costs is not a sufficient condition to
induce small informal entrepreneurs to formalize nor to foster the creation of new formal businesses. Our unique empirical setting also allows us to separately identify the impact of reducing taxes once registration costs had already been eliminated. We find modest effects on formalization and none on the creation of new formal
businesses.

03/17/2015 (Tue) – Peter G. Klein – University of Missouri/ Norwegian School of Economics
Entrepreneurship and Desperate Poverty: Biopharmaceutical Innovation in China, India, and Brazil

Abstract: Poverty is intricately linked to pervasive underlying health problems, including infectious diseases that are rare in wealthy countries. Prior research has documented that leading bio-pharmaceutical firms have not invested comprehensively in diseases that mainly affect patients in developing countries. Theory suggests that indigenous firms may have a greater incentive to invest in diseases that primarily affect poor patients than large biopharmaceutical multinationals. Yet little empirical evidence exists of significant biopharmaceutical innovation in emerging markets. In this paper, we provide evidence from three countries where poverty is prevalent — Brazil, China, and India — that a growing number of indigenous biopharmaceutical companies are in-vesting in innovation on diseases that primarily affect the poor. The results suggest a subtle set of interrelationships as co-located firms benefit from spillovers across research projects. We identify complementarities for performance in the clustering of disease-targeted projects but substitution effects for performance in the clustering of firms. These results indicate that indigenous bio-pharmaceutical firms are most productive when they co-specialize to maximize knowledge spill-overs and minimize competition for funding and knowledge workers.

03/16/2015 (Mon) – João M. P. de Mello – Insper
Short-Selling Restrictions and Returns: a Natural Experiment

Abstract: Restrictions on short-selling may impede market participants from fully expressing their opinions about an asset, causing departures from price efficiency (Miller, 1977). Measuring the impact of short-selling restriction on returns has been elusive because the decision to sell short reflects expectations on returns. We measure the causal impact of short-selling restrictions on returns by taking advantage of an unique dataset and an unique source of exogenous variation in rental fees. In Brazil during the 2010 – 2013 period rental transaction from individual investors to mutual funds carried an implicit tax discount on days of distribution of Interest on Net Equity (IoNE). The possibility of tax arbitrage produces an exogenous spike in rental and short interest during the days surrounding IoNE distribution, making it prohibitively expensive to short-sell for speculative reasons. Our data contains all rental transaction and the identity of the parts, thus allowing us identify transactions for tax arbitrage. We find that the variation of rental fees induced by the tax arbitrage operations has a large impact on abnormal returns, corroborating Miller’s hypothesis.

03/10/2015 (Tue) – Michalis P. Stamatogiannis – University of Bath
Robust Econometric Inference for Stock Return Predictability

Abstract: This study examines stock return predictability via lagged financial variables with un- known stochastic properties. We propose a novel testing procedure that (1) robustifies inference to regressors. degree of persistence, (2) accommodates testing the joint predictive ability of financial variables in multiple regression, (3) is easy to implement as it is based on a linear estimation procedure, and (4) can be used for long-horizon predictability tests. We provide some evidence in favor of short-horizon predictability during the 1927-2012 period. Nevertheless, this evidence almost entirely disappears in the post.1952 period. Moreover, predictability becomes weaker, not stronger, as the predictive horizon increases. (JEL C12, C32, C58, G12, G14).

03/02/2015 (Mon) – Vladimir Teles – FGV / SP

02/24/2015 (Tue) – Igor Cunha – Nova School of Business and Economics
The Economic Effects of Public Financing: Evidence from Municipal Bond Ratings Recalibration

Abstract: We study how changes in the supply of local public financing affect economic outcomes by exploring Moody’s municipal bond credit ratings scale recalibration. Following the ratings recalibration, upgraded municipalities increase bond issuance and experience a reduction in their borrowing costs relative to non-upgraded municipalities. This exogenous shock to the supply of credit to local governments leads to greater increases in local government employment, private sector employment, and total income of upgraded municipalities relative to otherwise similar municipalities that are not upgraded. Private sector job creation is concentrated in the non-tradable, education, and health sectors, which depend primarily on local demand and government transfers.

Previous Academic Seminars

2014

09/01/2014 (Mon) – Sergio Firpo / Sao Paulo School of Economics
Occupational Tasks and Changes in the Wage Structure.

08/11/2014 (Mon) – Juan Dubra / Universidad de Montevideo
Attitude Polarization: Theory and Evidence EXTREMELY preliminary

08/04/2014 (Mon) – Tiago Cavalcanti / University of Cambridge
Growth and Human Capital: a Network Approach

07/29/2014 (Tue) – Fabio Ribas Chaddad / Insper / University of Missouri
Produtividade no Agronegócio

07/17/2014 (Thu) – Wagner A. Kamamura / Jones Graduate School of Business, Rice University
A picture is a worth a thousand words: Translating product reviews into a brand-positioning map

06/30/2014 (Mon) – Prof. Dr. Liran Einav / Stanford University
The Response of Drug Expenditure to Non-Linear Contract Design: Evidence from Medicare Part D

06/02/2014 (Mon) – Prof. Dr. Rafael Dix-Carneiro / Duke University
Trade Reform and regional Dynamics: Evidence from 25 Years of Brazilian Matched Employer-Employee Data

05/28/2014 (Wed) – Roberto S. Vassolo / Austral University – IAE Business School, Department of Business Policy University
What Doesn’t Kill You Makes You Stronger: The Evolution of Competition and Entry-order Advantages in Economically Turbulent Contexts.

05/22/2014 (Thu) – Prof. Dr. Bruno Cara Giovanetti / FEA-USP e Coordenador de Pesquisas – FIPE
Equity Lending Fees and Search-Costs

05/19/2014 (Mon) – Prof. Dr. Gabriel Madeira / FEA-USP
Occupational Choices and Limited Commitment: Inferential evidence from the availability of new credit instruments

05/19/2014 (Mon) – Prof. Dr. Gabriel Madeira / FEA-USP
Occupational Choices and Limited Commitment: Inferential evidence from the availability of new credit instruments

05/14/2014 (Wed) – José Mauro da Costa Hernandez / FEI/SP e EACH/USP
Ego Depletion and its Effects on Information Search and Product Evaluation

05/08/2014 (Thu) – Richard Saito / FGV-EAESP
Evidence of How Banks Respond to Central Bank Supervision: The case of Brazil

05/16/2014 (Wed) – Simone Vasconcelos Ribeiro Galina / Universidade de São Paulo  –  FEA-RP/RAD
Technological Innovation for internationalization of Brazilian companies

05/07/2014 (Mon) – Francisco Costa / EPGE-FGV
Winners and Losers in the Labour Market: Heterogeneous Effects of Brazil-China Trade

04/11/2014 (Fri) – Flavia Andrade
Sociodemographic and Health Characteristics over the Life Course and Cognitive Health among Older Adults in Brazil

03/24/2014 (Mon) – 12 p.m. – Vinicius Carrasco
Robust Design with applications to Pricing and Taxation

03/20/2014 (Wed) – 12 p.m. – Mônica Viegas
Mercados e concentração no setor suplementar de planos e seguros de saúde no Brasil

02/26/2014(Wed) – 12 p.m. – Heitor Almeida (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)
The Real Effects of Sovereign Credit Rating Downgrades.

02/12/2014 (Wed) – 12 p.m. – Thomas Buser (University of Amsterdam and TIER)
The impact of positive and negative income changes on the height and weight of young children (with Hessel Oosterbeek, Erik Plug, José Rosero and Juan Ponce).

2013

12/13/2013 – 12 p.m. – Olivier Bertrand – (SKEMA Business School)
Getting by with a Little Help from My Friends: The Relevance of Political Affinity for the Bidding Strategy in Cross-Border Acquisitions

12/11/2013 – 12 p.m. – Paulo Furquim (FGV/SP)
Privatization as a Political Strategy: Evidence from Brazilian Basic Sanitation

12/05/2013 – 12 p.m. – Johan Walden (School of Business / California)
Trading, Profits, and Volatility in a Dynamic Information Network Model

11/14/2013 – 12 p.m. – Emanuel Kohlscheen (Banco Central do Brasil)
Official Interventions through Derivatives: Affecting the Demand for Foreign Exchange

11/13/2013 – 12 p.m. – Reynaldo Fernandes (USP / Ribeirão Preto)
“Em Busca de uma Medida da Qualidade da Escola”.

11/07/2013 – 12 p.m. – Ruy Ribeiro
Tradable aggregate risk factors and the cross-section of stock returns

11/05/2013 – 12 p.m. – Luciano Rossoni (IBEPES)
Social Embeddedness in Supply Chain and its Paradoxical Effect on Operational Performance

10/24/2013 – 12 p.m. – José Fajardo (FGV/RJ)
The Impact of Past Hyperinflation on Current Investment Behavior

10/17/2013 – 12 p.m. – Luciano de Castro
Paying for the smart grid

10/16/2013 – 12 p.m. – André Portela Souza (FGV/SP)
Child Labor and Learning

09/24/2013 – 12 p.m. – Paulo Arvate (FGV/EAESP)
Campaign Donation and Government Contracts in Brazilian States

09/19/2013 – 12 p.m. – Bruno Silva Martins (Banco Central do Brasil)
Loan Pricing Following a Macro Prudential within-Sector Capital Measure

09/18/2013 – 12 p.m. – Danilo Coelho (IPEA)
Balancing the Power to Appoint Officers

08/28/2013 – 12 p.m. – Enlinson Mattos (FGV/SP)
Optimal Sales Tax Rebates and Tax Enforcement Consumers

08/15/2013 – 12 p.m. – Fábio Gomes (FUCAPE Business School )
The precautionary saving hypothesis: a multivariate risk analysis under nonexpected utility approach

08/14/2013 – 12 p.m. – Giovani da Silveira  (University of Calgary)
An Exploratory Model of Manufacturing Capabilities, Contingency Barriers, and Export Propensity

07/31/2013 – 12 p.m. – Jorge Carneiro (PUC/Rio)
International Diversification: A Perspective from Large Emerging Market Multinationals

06/26/2013 – 12 p.m. – Luciano Pereira Soares (Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa)
Realidade Virtual por Visualização Imersiva

06/25/2013 – 12 p.m. – Bruno Rocha (UFMG)
Assessing Competition in Banking Industry: A Multiproduct Approach

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