[{"jcr:title":"In a keynote lecture at Insper, Esther Duflo proposes a new global pact for climate justice","cq:tags_0":"area-de-conhecimento:políticas-públicas","cq:tags_1":"area-de-conhecimento:economia","cq:tags_2":"tipos-de-conteudo:acontece-no-insper","cq:tags_3":"area-de-conhecimento:políticas-públicas/sustentabilidade"},{"richText":"In a presentation to students of the Data, Economics, and Policy Design Program (DEDP) and faculty of Insper's graduate courses, the Nobel laureate in Economics advocates for direct financial compensation to countries most affected by climate change.","authorDate":"12/12/2025 19h12","madeBy":"Por","tag":"tipos-de-conteudo:acontece-no-insper","title":"In a keynote lecture at Insper, Esther Duflo proposes a new global pact for climate justice","variant":"imagecolor"},{"jcr:title":"transparente - turquesa - vermelho"},{"themeName":"transparente - turquesa - vermelho"},{"containerType":"containerTwo"},{"jcr:title":"Grid Container Section","layout":"responsiveGrid"},{"text":"Economist Esther Duflo, winner of the 2019 Nobel Prize in Economics, called for a shift in how the world confronts climate change during her keynote lecture at Insper on November 13. In a presentation grounded in data and rigorous arguments, Duflo highlighted the disproportionate impacts of the climate crisis on vulnerable populations and proposed placing the poorest at the center of the discussion. Her proposal is called [FAIR](https://fairclimate.earth/pt) —an acronym for Foreseeable, Automatic, Immediate, and Regular—a model of direct financial compensation to affected people, to be financed through a new international tax arrangement. One of the actions within this proposal includes direct transfers to vulnerable populations in urgent situations, which has gained popularity in Brazil under the nickname “Climate PIX.” The keynote marked the start of classes for the first course, Design and Implementation of Experimental Evaluations, within the Data, Economics, and Public Policy Design Program (DEDP). The program is offered by Insper as a member of the [Alliance for Training in Data, Economics, and Public Policy Design (ADEPT)](https://www.povertyactionlab.org/adept) . This global alliance is made up of academic institutions around the world committed to training the next generation of policymakers, decision-makers, and researchers in areas such as impact evaluation and data analysis. ADEPT is led by the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), a global research center co-founded by Duflo. Renowned for promoting evidence-based public policies, J-PAL has become an international reference in evaluating the impact of social programs in areas such as education, health, housing, and cash transfers. For Duflo, who is a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), the FAIR proposal follows the same logic: testing, measuring, and applying what works based on concrete data. A new model to address the climate crisis “The planet is warming, the poor are on the front lines of the climate tragedy, but they are not at the center of negotiations or proposed solutions. This needs to change,” the professor stated. Building on this premise, she detailed the proposal developed in partnership with fellow Nobel laureate Abhijit Banerjee and University of Chicago economist Michael Greenstone. The idea is simple yet ambitious: to transfer resources directly to people affected by climate change, based on automatic and measurable criteria, such as the number of days of extreme heat in a given region. This would eliminate the need for slow and politicized negotiations during times of crisis. Inspired by the success of programs such as Bolsa Família, the proposal is grounded in accumulated evidence on the positive impact of direct cash transfers. According to Duflo, more than 70 such programs have been rigorously evaluated worldwide, totaling around 100 studies that demonstrate their effectiveness. In extremely poor countries, the proposal envisions a basic income of three dollars per day (in purchasing power parity) for each adult, financed by wealthy countries as a form of historical compensation for their accumulated emissions. This amount, the economist argues, would be sufficient to eliminate extreme poverty across much of Sub-Saharan Africa—an intervention with immediate and lasting transformative potential. FAIR is structured around three pillars: direct transfers to individuals; community-level financing for adaptive infrastructure (such as flood protection and cooling systems); and a climate reinsurance fund for low-income governments, which currently rely on emergency international aid—often slow and insufficient. Countries such as Brazil, with greater institutional and economic capacity, would fall outside this third pillar but could autonomously adopt the first two. Duflo cited Brazil not only as inspiration for the proposal’s name, but also as a key player in its conception. It was during Brazil’s presidency of the G20 that the opportunity emerged to articulate a new, fairer, and more effective model of climate finance. How to finance a people-centered climate pact Beyond its economic effectiveness, Duflo emphasized the political potential of the proposal: it creates a clear incentive for developing countries to commit to more ambitious climate targets, while simultaneously offering a concrete response to impacts already underway. Unlike global negotiations stalled by the requirement for consensus—such as those at the Conferences of the Parties (COPs)—FAIR can be implemented gradually by coalitions of countries, foundations, and multilateral institutions, without the need for unanimous approval. “Today, there is no CEO of the climate. Everything has to be agreed upon unanimously, and that paralyzes the system. We need a new pact in which everyone has something to gain,” she said. To make the financing viable, Duflo proposes measures such as a global tax on large fortunes—based on a proposal presented by Brazil during its G20 presidency—and increasing the minimum tax rate on multinational corporate profits from the current 15% to 21%. According to her estimates, these changes could generate up to 700 billion dollars per year, equivalent to what the world currently spends on direct subsidies for fossil fuels and less than 1% of global GDP. “It’s a matter of prioritization and long-term vision. The money exists—what’s lacking is political will,” she emphasized. The economist also argued that the current climate finance system, based on voluntary pledges and multilateral bureaucracies, is unequal and ineffective. The absence of a predictable and automatic mechanism to compensate those most affected undermines trust among countries and populations, making it harder to reach lasting agreements. “Promising billions without clear mechanisms for implementation only fuels skepticism. We need instruments that work and deliver tangible results.” The proposal is also grounded in principles of justice and historical responsibility. Duflo invoked the “polluter pays” principle—common in national environmental legislation—as the basis for a more equitable global architecture. She argued that the system should be transparent, universal, and people-centered, with real accountability rather than vague promises. As an example of technical feasibility, she cited an experiment conducted by J-PAL in the state of Gujarat, India, where the creation of a regulated emissions market significantly reduced pollution at low cost to companies, demonstrating that innovation and justice can go hand in hand. At the end of the lecture, Duflo emphasized that the project is still under development, but that decades of accumulated evidence indicate it is possible to align social justice and climate action effectively. She also invited those present—students, researchers, and policymakers—to engage in building concrete, fair, and inclusive solutions. “We are facing a collective choice: to continue with unfulfilled promises, or to create a system that works, that delivers justice, and that places people—all people—at the center of the climate agenda.”"},{"jcr:title":"Economist Esther Duflo, winner of the 2019 Nobel Prize in Economics","alt":"Economist Esther Duflo, winner of the 2019 Nobel Prize in Economics"}]